The Philippines remains energy insecure as its growing dependence on Middle Eastern crude oil and tightening power reserves leave the country increasingly vulnerable to global fuel supply disruptions as well as power supply risks, according to state-run think tank Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS).

In a recent presentation of the findings of the study “How Energy Secure Is the Philippines?” PIDS senior research fellow Adoracion Navarro said the country continues to face energy security risks despite improvements in efficiency.

“The short answer to how energy secure is the Philippines—we are insecure,” Navarro was quoted by PIDS as saying in a statement on Wednesday, July 8.

The PIDS study assessed the country’s energy security based on six dimensions: sufficiency, reliability, resilience, affordability, accessibility, and sustainability.

PIDS found that fossil fuels still accounted for about 70 percent of the country’s total primary energy supply in 2024, while the energy self-sufficiency ratio continued its long-term decline to around 45 percent.

At the same time, crude oil imports have become increasingly concentrated in the Middle East, with nearly all of the country’s crude supply now sourced from the region, exposing the Philippines to geopolitical tensions and global price shocks.

The findings come as the government moves to strengthen the country’s energy security, including plans to establish a strategic petroleum reserve.

PIDS also flagged growing strains on the country’s power system as electricity demand continues to increase while reserve margins tighten due to aging power plants, transmission constraints, and grid congestion.

In 2024 alone, the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) was suspended 2,401 times due to red-alert conditions, underscoring pressures on the electricity system.

The study further found that the Philippines continues to have one of the highest electricity prices in Southeast Asia, while many households still lack reliable access to power.

Despite these challenges, Navarro noted that the country has steadily improved its energy efficiency, with households and businesses using less energy for every unit of economic output compared with previous years.

“Where the government needs more insights are our own risks and requisites, requirements, and hopefully our private sector stakeholders would be able to give insights to the government as well, like the necessary investments and policy challenges,” Navarro said.

In response to the study, the Department of Energy (DOE) said many of its recommendations are already being incorporated into the Philippine Energy Plan (PEP).

DOE supervising science research specialist Marietta Quejada said one of the government’s priority initiatives is the establishment of a strategic petroleum reserve to strengthen the country’s preparedness against global supply disruptions.

Quejada said the DOE is studying measures such as increasing mandatory private-sector oil inventories and establishing government-controlled reserves to improve the country’s emergency fuel buffer.

The DOE is also pursuing upstream resource development, smart grid modernization, as well as household-based electrification, while targeting an increase in the share of renewable energy (RE) in the power generation mix to 35 percent by 2030 and 50 percent by 2040.

“We plan to institutionalize the monitoring of energy security. Actually, the main goal for the PEP is energy security,” Quejada said.

Meanwhile, the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) said strengthening battery energy storage systems (BESS) will be critical as the country expands its RE capacity.

ERC market operations service director Sharon Ocampo-Montañer said the challenge is no longer simply generating more solar power, as the country also needs sufficient battery storage to capture excess daytime generation and use it during peak evening demand, when red alerts are more likely to occur.

“If we have batteries—enough batteries—we could shift this overgeneration to the evening peak. So, I think flexibility will be a big challenge when we push for more RE,” she said.

For his part, First Gen Corp. vice president and head of strategy and planning Jay Joel Soriano said the country’s energy transition should focus not only on expanding RE but also on developing indigenous resources capable of providing reliable electricity around the clock.

Soriano cited geothermal energy as one of the Philippines’ strategic advantages because it provides continuous, weather-independent power while reducing dependence on imported fuels.

“By combining the state’s power to de-risk exploration, and the private sector’s speed, capital, and operational efficiency, we can transition from a vulnerable, import-dependent grid to an indigenous, secure, and green energy economy,” Soriano said.

The findings were presented during the PhilEnergy Expo 2026 held last month, which brought together policymakers, regulators, industry leaders, and researchers to discuss policy as well as investment priorities aimed at ensuring that the shift toward cleaner energy also delivers affordable, reliable, resilient, and secure electricity to Filipino consumers, according to PIDS.