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Manila Bulletin devider Business devider Recto forecasts inflation to tick up in March

Recto forecasts inflation to tick up in March

Published Mar 22, 2024 07:35 am

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto said that the inflation rate would increase in March but would not exceed the three percent to four percent target band amid higher interest rates.

“We're expecting that, it will be a bumpy road. Now, if that will happen then I think the interest rates will be higher for longer,” Recto told reporters on Thursday night.

“There's always a possibility [to go beyond the four percent target] but I think it’s still gonna be within the two to four percent. It's going to be a bumpy road but I think still within band. Lumampas man yan, babalik din yan,” he added.

The inflation readout for February was the highest in four months, posting a 3.4 percent year-on-year growth as attributed mostly to the continued spike in rice prices.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Eli M. Remolina Jr. shares the same forecast with the finance chief as the central bank is still concerned with the high prices.

In contrast, National Economic and Development Authority Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan earlier stated that the March readout will likely be lower compared to February.

Interest rates were kept at 6.5 percent last month, the third time that the central bank has kept rates steady since an off-cycle hike in October 2023.

Setting 'realistic' growth target

The government may also revise downward the economic growth target, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), into “something more realistic.”

“I think we should come out with something more realistic not only this year but for the medium term until 2028 because if we project a very high GDP, projecting a very high revenue, and if you miss it your deficit will increase and your debt-to-GDP will also increase,” Recto said.

“I think six percent is a good number, aspirational I think we should hit for 6.5. Realistic is six but we will endeavor to hit 6.5 that's how I'm looking at it,” he added.

The finance chief still vowed to continue pushing for bigger revenue collection from the Bureau of Internal Revenue and the Bureau of Customs, which are gunning for a P4.3 trillion target this year.

The current GDP target for this year is 6.5 to 7.5 percent, and 6.5 to 8.0 percent for the next four years.

The country’s economic growth expanded by 5.6 percent last year, which was the highest amongst its Asian neighbors such as China at 5.2 percent, Vietnam at 5.0 percent, and Malaysia at 3.8 percent.

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Inflation rate gross domestic product (GDP) ralph recto
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