Goldman Sachs Group Inc. holds one of the most optimistic full-year consumer price outlooks for the Philippines, forecasting an average inflation rate of 5.2 percent as global energy prices experience a rapid and sharp pullback.

Goldman economists Yuting Yang and Goohoon Kwon said in a July 3 commentary that the downward revision was from their previous estimate of 5.7 percent.

“Given the rapid and sharp pullback in global energy prices, we revise down our 2026 CPI forecast to 5.2 percent from 5.7 percent previously,” Goldman Sachs economists said.

The Wall Street firm’s forecast falls well below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) revised forecast of 6.4 percent, but it would still mark a sharp increase from the 1.7 percent average headline inflation recorded in the previous year.

For the month of June, Goldman Sachs anticipated inflation to moderate further to 6.4 percent from 6.8 percent in May.

Moody’s Analytics aligns closely with this downward trend, though it remains slightly more conservative, forecasting June inflation to ease to 6.5 percent.

While inflation is cooling across the region, Moody’s warned that “high electricity rates and elevated energy-related costs will keep the print well above” the BSP’s target band of two to four percent.

Meanwhile, Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank believes the headline print in June will hold steady at 6.8 percent.

Deutsche Bank said falling oil prices and rising electricity costs are pulling inflation in opposite directions, noting that slower private transport inflation is likely to be offset by higher electricity rates, which rose 19 percent year on year in June from 17 percent in May.

Taking a more cautious stance, MUFG Bank, Ltd. pointed to climate risks, projecting that price growth “will likely remain elevated at more than six percent year-on-year.”

“With risks of El Niño and food price pressures moving forward, we see the BSP remaining hawkish for now,” MUFG said, adding that the BSP could still raise the benchmark rate twice more to a peak of 5.25 percent by year-end.

MUFG senior currency analyst Michael Wan said this hawkish stance “should, over time, provide some support for the currency.”