Vietnam widens income lead over Philippines as both target upper-middle-income status
Vietnam widened its lead over the Philippines in terms of gross national income (GNI) per capita as the Southeast Asian neighbors both aspire to attain the World Bank’s upper-middle-income-country (UMIC) status.
A World Bank board report dated June 18 and disclosed last Monday, June 29, showed that the Philippines’ GNI per capita climbed to a record high of $4,850 in 2025 from $4,470 in 2024. As of Wednesday afternoon, July 1 (Manila time), the World Bank had yet to release its latest country income classifications for fiscal year (FY) 2027, covering the period from July 1, 2026, to June 30, 2027, which are based on 2025 GNI per capita.
GNI measures the total income earned by a country’s residents, both domestically and abroad, making it a broader measure of economic performance than gross domestic product (GDP), which accounts only for domestic output.
Based on separate World Bank Group (WBG) DataBank figures seen by Manila Bulletin, the Philippines’ GNI, using the Atlas method, rose to $566.8 billion in 2025 from over $518 billion in 2024.
However, the Philippines’ 2025 GNI per capita remained below Vietnam’s, which jumped to $4,970 from $4,490 a year ago. As a result, the income gap between the two countries widened sixfold—from just $20 in 2024 to $120 in 2025.
At the current Philippine peso-United States (US) dollar exchange rate, the gap in average income between the Vietnamese and Filipinos has widened to nearly ₱7,400.
Based on the World Bank document, the income eligibility threshold for borrowing from the WBG’s International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) ranged between more than $1,366 and less than or equal to $8,105 in GNI per capita. This means both the Philippines and Vietnam remain eligible to borrow from IBRD, the WBG’s lending arm for developing countries.
The document also showed that the new high-income threshold for FY 2027 has been raised to “more than $14,375,” from the FY 2026 threshold of more than $13,935 in GNI per capita.
With the higher benchmark for high-income economies, the previous thresholds for lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) of $1,136 to $4,495 in GNI per capita and UMICs of $4,496 to $13,935 are also expected to increase for the current FY 2027.
Manila Bulletin reported earlier that the Philippines’ latest Human Capital Index Plus (HCI+) score of 175, out of a maximum of 325, lagged behind neighboring Vietnam, whose HCI+ score stood at 216, leaving a 41-point gap between the two Southeast Asian countries.
According to the World Bank, education accounted for the largest portion of the Philippines’ HCI+ gap with Vietnam at 24 points, followed by employment at 13 points, and health at three points.
Overall, the World Bank said that “Vietnam does better” than the Philippines across the health, education, and employment pillars.
Among the individual indicators, the largest contributors to the Philippines’ HCI+ deficit relative to Vietnam were harmonized learning outcomes (HLO), adult share at work, and expected years of schooling.
The World Bank estimated that raising these indicators to Vietnam’s levels would increase the Philippines’ HCI+ score to 219 and boost future income by around 43.6 percent.
Vietnam likewise outperformed the Philippines across several underlying indicators.
In health, the Philippines recorded an 82-percent probability of survival to age 60, compared with Vietnam’s 87 percent, while the probability of no stunting was 76 percent versus 81 percent. Stunted children are shorter than healthy children of the same age.
In education, expected years of schooling stood at 11 years in the Philippines, slightly below Vietnam’s 11.9 years. The Philippines also posted substantially lower HLO at 365, compared with Vietnam’s 485, although it exceeded Vietnam in tertiary completion, at 33 percent versus 20 percent.
Several employment indicators also favored Vietnam. The Philippines recorded a youth share at work of 44 percent compared with Vietnam’s 65 percent and an adult share at work of 74 percent versus 87 percent. However, the Philippines posted a slightly higher youth share in wage employment at 68 percent, compared with Vietnam’s 64 percent, and a higher adult share in wage employment at 67 percent versus 52 percent.
HCI+ measures the human capital a child born today can expect to accumulate over a working life. It expands the original Human Capital Index (HCI) by incorporating tertiary education and work experience alongside health and basic education.