In light of developments in the nation and the world, the Manila Bulletin’s April 3 editorial explains the risks associated with stagflation, which is the uncomfortable mix of high inflation and slow growth. When pitted against our unemployment figures and the increased costs due to the war in Iran, it would be helpful for you to read this article in depth to better understand what this may mean for you, your businesses, and organizations.

After the holy week, I hope that the hurtful economic consequences of this continuing war, such as the higher transport costs of goods and personal travel will not bite as hard, as I expect them to persist in the coming months, since the damage done on oil facilities in the middle east will take months or years to repair, possibly keeping fuel prices up for an extended period. This Feb. 28 war is going to have profound effects on global growth for 2026 and perhaps 2027, similar to the 2019 tariff impositions in the first Trump presidency and the Covid-19 pandemic.

Nonetheless, while many had hoped that the April 1 address of US President Donald Trump would signal an abatement of hostilities, his speech pointed to continuing conflict. The world is bracing for the economic impacts of the prolonged conflict.

For most of us in business, it simply means that costs of supplies and materials may rise high while the opportunity to sell products and services drawn from these inputs may be limited.

These realities notwithstanding, what we need to do is hope for the best, and keep in mind that all crisis situations will end at a certain point. Despair is not an option. The key is to prepare for the coming months, as the kind of preparation we engage now will help us get ready for the future.

For those of us in Mindanao, this will mean examining our supply chains to see where we can obtain efficiencies. In my March 24, 2026 column I discussed co-loading of cargo by logistics companies to save fuel through grouped loads, and proximate production of raw materials such as food items to keep costs down and businesses running.

In many urban centers we may see less visitors from out of town due to the weaker travel demand brought about by high fuel costs. Travelling from Manila through the southern Tagalog provinces, the lack of vehicular traffic was evident. This means that local establishments like restaurants and hotels will need to depend on the local market to sustain demand.

This early, some establishments may need to be ready to engage more food deliveries, with some encouraging waiters to become delivery riders. Other ideas will include bolstering e-commerce and other means to market goods, such as pasalubong items to other areas, and delivering services at a lower cost.

The balancing act businesses will need to perform will include ensuring that other opportunities are gained to improve or sustain top-line income by adding new customers, while costs are managed so that rent, salaries, wages, and benefits are paid on time. In short, to keep other input costs competitive to protect jobs and opportunities for smaller businesses. Collaboration between buyers and suppliers is key to sustaining each respective enterprise to prepare for the coming months.

To reiterate this point, let me reprise the ending sentence of my March 24 column: “We all will need to work together. We will overcome these challenges.”