For Filipino consumers, it is a crippling puzzle: why are we hammered with over 100 percent cumulative oil price hikes while the rest of the world experiences only 40 percent to 60 percent increases for the same black gold? The answer is a toxic mix of heavy taxes, high import dependence, global market whims, policy uncertainty, and limp government responses.

The narrative is clear. The Philippines is painfully exposed in this oil crisis because we lack domestic reserves and government-controlled strategic stockpiles. Unlike our ASEAN neighbors, who cushion consumers with subsidies and maintain multiple refining facilities, we rely on a single refinery and bear steep risk premiums on every imported barrel.

Domestic oil production isn’t just a resource; it’s a market shield. Countries with their own reserves can protect their citizens amid global turmoil. In contrast, import-dependent markets like the Philippines are left exposed, scrambling for supply and bracing for price shocks the moment a crisis hits—such as the lingering disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Many nations sit on abundance, from the US to the Middle East. Our Southeast Asian neighbors, led by their state-owned companies, wield far greater energy security. Indonesia (via Pertamina) produces roughly 600,000–650,000 barrels per day (bpd); Malaysia (Petronas) pumps 500,000–600,000 bpd; Thailand (PTT) manages 250,000–300,000 bpd; Vietnam yields 170,000–190,000 bpd; and Brunei produces 100,000–120,000 bpd. Even Singapore holds a strategic advantage as a regional trading hub, granting it calculated access to multiple global suppliers.

Where does that leave the Philippines? Highly exposed and clambering for every drop. Oil-producing countries have a lifeline; they secure their own people first, buying months of leeway while negotiating imports. Meanwhile, the Philippines barely produces oil; its last fields (Nido and Matinloc) were decommissioned in 2019. Even at their peak, extraction was marginal at best.

One might ask: while our neighbors’ state-owned firms run strategic operations, what is the Philippine National Oil Co. (PNOC) doing? It is currently racing to buy oil in negligible volumes—which may actually cost consumers more due to hefty logistics and insurance premiums.

Infrastructure also tells the story. While Indonesia has at least nine refineries, Malaysia has six, and Thailand has six, the Philippines has just one remaining: Petron Corp, with a capacity of 180,000 bpd. Shell and Chevron shuttered their local refining operations years ago due to relentless policy uncertainty and the politically charged nature of the domestic oil business.

Furthermore, our neighbors insulate their citizens: Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand provide pump subsidies, while Vietnam uses its Oil Price Stabilization Fund (Quỹ Bình Ổn Giá) to temper spikes. In the deregulated Philippine market, however, “inventory” isn’t just idle stock frozen at old prices—it includes fuel en route to replace what is sold daily, meaning local pumps mirror the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) benchmark almost instantly.

Filipinos living abroad notice the contrast: modest shifts overseas versus brutal, triple-digit escalations back home. A key differentiator is that many nations maintain state-controlled strategic stockpiles—which essentially serve as an “emergency fuel savings account” to tame price shocks or supply gaps.

On record, the US holds the largest Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at over 700 million barrels. EU states maintain 90 days of net imports. In Asia, Japan holds 500 million barrels (covering 200+ days); China has 400–500 million; and South Korea has 100–130 million.

In the Philippines, stockpiling only becomes a “hot issue” when prices skyrocket. Yet, the government still cannot navigate a policy framework to make it a reality. Instead, we tolerate high market premiums—the surcharges traders slap on top of global benchmarks for freight, insurance, and the “risk” of delivering to our shores.

This financial strain is worsening. International suppliers currently peg market premiums at $2, but alarms are sounding that this surcharge could explode to $50 in the coming days. Because we lack multiple refineries and rely on just one, we are often forced to buy expensive refined products rather than crude, driving these premiums even higher.

President Marcos’ declaration of a National Energy Emergency on March 24 has thrown the Philippines into a negative spotlight. We are the first country to declare such a crisis, signaling to the world that our response mechanisms are the weakest in the room.

The President is reportedly reaching out to Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei to prevent pumps from drying up. While there are “assurances” of crude supply until June 30, remember that Petron only holds 30 percent of the market. What about the other 70 percent? Even the DOE’s procured oil of 142,000 barrels covers less than one day of national diesel demand.

This is why government pronouncements clash with reality. Hundreds of gas stations have temporarily ceased operations, and provincial consumers are struggling to find fuel. Does the government need to buy the oil itself, despite having no distribution network? Or should it follow Thailand’s lead—negotiating state-to-state deals and providing security escorts through the Strait of Hormuz to help legitimate industry players secure their own shipments?

The ₱20 billion budget for 2.0 million barrels of diesel is already raising eyebrows. Full transparency is essential to avoid a “Pharmally-style” scandal. Furthermore, the lack of clarity regarding the new excise tax suspension law (RA 12316) is delaying purchases. Without a clear policy, deliveries will stall, and consumers will pay even higher premiums.

Frankly, the government needs to roll up its sleeves. Enough with the press releases and media stunts—it’s not election season yet. Focus on solutions, not spin.