As weekly price shocks gouge ever deeper holes in consumers’ pockets, more Filipinos are beginning to wonder: Are we heading toward a future where fuel isn’t just expensive, but essentially a “limited-edition” item?

The warning from oil companies has been stark: April marks the edge of the safety zone, while May is already shaping up to be a crisis as contracts fall apart and exporting countries begin imposing restrictions.

An industry insider further cautions that supply strain isn’t merely looming—it is already here. The country is now grappling with “availability stress,” and even government-mandated energy-saving measures may prove to be little more than a thin shield if the Middle East crisis drags on.

Still, Energy Secretary Sharon Garin is attempting to calm nerves, insisting that fuel shortages won’t hit the country because the government won’t allow it. She pointed to a plan by the state-run Philippine National Oil Co. (PNOC) to purchase two million barrels of petroleum products as a buffer, though even she conceded that such a volume barely covers 10 days of national consumption.

However, PNOC’s stopgap procurement strategy raises at least two critical pressure points: the sluggish pace of budget approval under government rules, and the harsh reality of securing oil when export bans shrink the pool of willing sellers in the international market.

So far, the latest pronouncement from the energy secretary involves an expected shipment of 300,000 barrels bought by PNOC—a volume that would last less than two days. Industry sources indicated the shipment will come from an ASEAN neighbor, facilitated by a player with established links in that market.

Garin emphasized that if this PNOC-sourced oil arrives, it will be stored in the facilities of private oil firms. Under the country’s deregulated market, consumers should not expect any discount on its sale.

Consequently, with forecasts for Brent crude threatening to hit $200 a barrel and Dubai crude projected to surge toward $170 amid escalating conflict, consumers should brace for even heftier price adjustments—all while the costs of basic commodities and services soar.

As of Friday’s (March 20) trading close, Brent crude clawed its way back to $108 per barrel after a brief dip, while Dubai crude surged past $136. This will further ratchet up the strain on import-dependent economies like the Philippines.

The real test at this make-or-break moment is how much more Filipino consumers can shoulder as pump prices spike week after week—or even day after day—and how far the shockwaves will spread, from the expected rise in grocery prices to climbing service costs.

Supply under siege: Contracts canceled and exports blocked

The clock is ticking. With a number of contracts already voided, oil companies are sounding the alarm that future supply is uncertain and any replacements will be even costlier for consumers.

Beyond the immediate crunch, a darker dilemma casts a shadow: major suppliers like China and Thailand have already slammed their export doors shut, while India, Vietnam, Malaysia, and South Korea are tightening the taps. By capping exports or prioritizing their own domestic needs, they leave the Philippines increasingly boxed in with shrinking sourcing options.

Despite government talk of buying Russian oil, global industry sources hint that the Philippines is currently at the back of the line. China, India, and Turkey dominate the procurement queue, while Brazil, Singapore, certain European markets, Indonesia, South Korea, Australia, and Japan are reportedly securing Russian oil through indirect deals or special waivers.

Sources convey that the Philippines is taking a long, winding route, relying on embassy backchannels rather than direct dealings with Russian sellers. The risk is high that the Philippines will be sidelined in the race for scarce supplies.

At best, Garin is counting on oil companies to lock in new contracts—primarily for May and subsequent months—even if these deals come at steep premiums. These expensive arrangements mean consumers may no longer have the comfort of weekly adjustments; instead, they could face daily price jolts at the pump.

The Energy Secretary qualified that the "enemy" in this crisis is twofold: surging prices and deliberate hoarding. While the DOE promises to keep a watchful eye on every player, questions remain: beyond the "show-cause" orders the department is so fond of issuing, can it actually stop unscrupulous players from gaming the market?

Notwithstanding official reassurances, industry sources reveal a darker plot twist: if the conflict stretches beyond three months and the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, localized shortages are likely to hit certain areas first. The worst-case scenario could then swell into fuel rationing or wider supply shortages nationwide.

Remedial measures: Small relief, big pain

The government’s response includes prescribed energy savings, subsidies for marginalized sectors, and an excise tax relief option. President Marcos has moved to seek emergency powers from Congress to fast-track these measures.

Yet, three weeks into the war, the "urgent" tax reprieve remains stuck on paper, unsigned by the President as of this writing.

Alarmingly, the President recently claimed the country has "oil stockpiles" abroad ready for delivery. In reality, the Philippines has no domestic strategic reserves and remains at the mercy of neighboring suppliers. Amid export restrictions, the country faces a hard truth: can it actually secure enough fuel, or are empty tanks inevitable?

Adding to the global price surge is the weakening Philippine peso, recently hitting ₱60.10 to the US dollar. Because oil trades in "petrodollars," the country must stretch its greenbacks further just to secure every necessary barrel.

Ultimately, what makes this emergency extra brutal is that ordinary consumers are being left in the dark. Starved of clear information, they are left to guess their way through coping strategies while anxiety and exploding prices deliver a double punch to eroding household budgets.