In my March 3 column, I outlined three things we will need to do in the aftermath of the wider Middle East conflict. These include “electrify a greater part of our transport system, the second is to accelerate the shift to renewable energy. The third is to fortify our local food systems to ensure that food is affordable for consumers.” Since both sides of the fray have hardened their positions, it is clear that the conflict may be prolonged. Already, projections of significant fuel increases have been made.

For this week’s column, I will focus on the sharpest impact we must brace for, which is on food production, which can raise food costs and affect the poor the most.

High petroleum prices can mean more expensive imported fertilizer due to the raw material and transport costs. We will need to strategize how we can cheaply produce the fertilizer we need.

This will also mean higher transport costs for food products. The farther sources are from markets like in Luzon, food is likely to cost more for consumers, especially in Metro Manila and Metro Cebu. Other cities in Mindanao and the rest of Luzon and the Visayas are likely to have cheaper food costs since distances from farm to market are shorter.

Compounding this are weather-related disruptions. The forecast “weak” La Niña or El Niño may mean unpredictable weather, and therefore, an unsure food supply, especially for vegetables and our main protein sources, pork and chicken, which will depend on corn for feed material. To address this, climate-smart techniques will need to be deployed in present farms, along with investments in climate-controlled farming.

High food costs will cause inflation to spike. In turn, inflation hampers growth, since businesses and farms will need to spend more to keep their enterprises running. In these times, any expansion is put on hold, and new jobs are not generated for those entering the workforce

To address these geopolitical and climate threats on our food supply, food production and distribution at the regional and local level needs to be boosted. We need long-term solutions, not merely stopgap measures.

For many cities, urban farming solutions are needed. These include converting open landscaped areas in subdivisions and condominiums into vegetable plots to increase local food production. The closer these are to consumers, the cheaper the transport costs. Local Homeowners and condominium resident associations may need to look into allocating areas for food production.

At the regional level, food sufficiency plans will need to be developed and engaged by each regional development council to take stock of high production areas and allocate resources to maximize the production of food within the region. In addition, incentives to spur cheaper transport of produced food may need to be given to cushion the effect of high fuel prices for transport. Food processing industries will need to be encouraged.

At the level of businesses that serve food and need flowers, such as hotels and restaurants, investments in their own food and floral production will be helpful in keeping raw food costs low while ensuring quality. In the case of MacroAsia Corporation, they have integrated their food supply chain by growing their own vegetables in their property in Cavite. Other businesses can contract local cooperatives for this purpose.

I hope that in upcoming discussions, ensuring our food supply at the local level can be discussed, focused on long-term solutions to ensure food sufficiency and affordability.