TS Ramil barrels through Bicol, to hit Aurora Sunday — PAGASA
By Jel Santos
Published Oct 18, 2025 08:44 pm
Tropical Storm Ramil continued to move west-northwestward across mainland Bicol on Saturday evening, Oct. 18, while maintaining its strength, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 8 p.m. bulletin.
According to PAGASA, "Ramil" is expected to cross Bicol Region tonight until early Sunday morning, Oct. 19, before passing near or over the Polillo Islands and making a final landfall in Aurora province by Sunday morning or afternoon.
“The possibility of landfall over northern Quezon or southern Isabela instead of Aurora is also not ruled out based on the forecast confidence cone,” PAGASA said.
The state weather bureau warned that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in areas outside the storm’s direct path.
“Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted,” it said.
“Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.”
The worst-case scenario, according to PAGASA, is the possible raising of Wind Signal No. 3 should Ramil intensify into a severe tropical storm before landfall.
Signal No. 2
PAGASA hoisted Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 2 over several areas due to the threat of gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), posing a minor to moderate threat to life and property:
Luzon:
The southeastern portion of Isabela (Dinapigue), the southern portion of Quirino (Nagtipunan, Maddela), the southern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Alfonso Castañeda), northern and central portions of Aurora (Casiguran, Dilasag, Dinalungan, Baler, Dipaculao, Maria Aurora, San Luis), Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, the northern and eastern portions of Camarines Sur (Tinambac, Siruma, Goa, San Jose, Lagonoy, Garchitorena, Caramoan, Presentacion, Sagñay, Tigaon), the eastern portion of Albay (Rapu-Rapu, Bacacay, City of Tabaco, Malilipot, Santo Domingo, Manito, Tiwi, Malinao), and the northeastern portion of Sorsogon (Prieto Diaz, City of Sorsogon)
Visayas:
The northern portion of Northern Samar (Laoang, Pambujan, San Roque, Mondragon, Rosario, Lavezares, San Jose, Catarman, Bobon, Palapag)
Signal No. 1
The state weather bureau raised TCWS No. 1 in several areas, with wind speeds ranging from 39 to 61 km/h, having minimal to minor threat to life and property.
Luzon:
Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, the rest of Isabela, the rest of Quirino, the rest of Nueva Vizcaya, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, the rest of Aurora, Nueva Ecija, the eastern portion of Bulacan (Doña Remedios Trinidad, Norzagaray, San Miguel, San Ildefonso, San Rafael, Angat), the eastern portion of Tarlac (Camiling, San Clemente, Santa Ignacia, Paniqui, Moncada, San Manuel, Anao, Ramos, Pura, Victoria, City of Tarlac, La Paz, Concepcion, Gerona), the eastern portion of Pampanga (Magalang, Arayat, Candaba), the northern and eastern portions of Quezon (Tagkawayan, Perez, Alabat, Quezon, Atimonan, Padre Burgos, Unisan, Gumaca, Plaridel, Agdangan, Pagbilao, Mauban, Calauag, Guinayangan, Lopez, Pitogo, Macalelon, General Luna, Catanauan, San Narciso, Buenavista, San Francisco, San Andres, Mulanay, General Nakar, Infanta, Real, Sampaloc), the rest of Camarines Sur, the rest of Albay, the rest of Sorsogon, Burias Island, and Ticao Island
Visayas:
Northern Samar, the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Jipapad, San Policarpo, Oras, Arteche, Maslog), and the northern portion of Samar (Matuguinao, Calbayog City, Gandara, Santa Margarita, Pagsanghan, Tagapul-An, Almagro, Santo Niño, San Jose de Buan)
It added that strong to gale-force gusts will prevail over Cagayan Valley, CALABARZON, Metro Manila, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Marinduque, Occidental and Oriental Mindoro, Masbate, Caluya Islands, Samar, Eastern Samar, and Biliran on Saturday, and Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes on Sunday.
Storm surge, coastal flooding threats
PAGASA warned that a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge reaching up to two meters may affect low-lying and coastal areas in Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, Aurora, Quezon, Marinduque, the Bicol Region, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, and Samar within 36 hours.
“There is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge with peak heights of 1.0 to 2.0 meters within 36 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities,” the agency stated.
Also, the state weather bureau cautioned mariners against venturing into the sea, warning of very rough conditions along the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon, as well as the eastern and northern coasts of the Bicol Region and Cagayan Valley.
“Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside,” said PAGASA.
The agency said wave heights may reach up to five meters off Isabela and 4.5 meters along the seaboards of Camarines Norte, northern Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes.
Possible re-intensification before landfall
PAGASA noted that Ramil may strengthen before hitting Aurora on Sunday.
“Due to its proximity to the sea and the absence of large mountain ranges in Bicol Region, a re-intensification scenario before the final landfall in Aurora within the next 24 hours is likely,” it said.
After crossing Northern Luzon, the agency said Ramil may weaken slightly due to land interaction but could re-intensify over the West Philippine Sea before exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Monday, Oct. 20.
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