Motorists have faced weekly price hikes at the gas pumps, but next week may finally bring some long-awaited relief.

Based on the four-day trading average of Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS), diesel prices could see their first rollback in two months, ranging from ₱0.60 to ₱1.10 per liter. Gasoline, however, may either hold steady or increase by up to ₱0.20 per liter. Kerosene is also projected to ease by around ₱0.65 per liter.

Next week’s potential price adjustments are attributed to an increased global supply of crude oil, weaker market demand, and easing geopolitical tensions that had previously driven price spikes.

The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Oil Industry Management Bureau (OIMB) explained that the increased supply is partly coming from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which previously agreed to raise its output by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd). This is a lower increase compared to September’s 550,000 bpd.

“Crude oil continues to look weak due to oversupply coming out of OPEC, Russia, and the US (United States),” said Rodela Romero, OIMB director.

She added that the International Energy Agency (IEA) “cuts its global oil demand forecast, citing concerns about a market surplus, [and] oil traders see prices falling as geopolitical risk premium dissipates.”

In its recent market report, the IEA noted that demand only rose slightly. It projects that growth for oil consumption could slow down for the rest of the year due to the weaker global economy and the rise of electric vehicles (EVs).

Jetti Petroleum also expects the supply increase to continue into 2026. However, demand concerns point to the trade tensions between the US and China, including higher port fees and new tariffs against both countries, which could affect trade transport.

“Diesel price has likewise softened week-on-week, though values remain broadly elevated as several refineries within Asia are still undergoing scheduled turnarounds,” said Leo Bellas, Jetti president.

While next week’s gasoline prices appear to offer a positive outlook for motorists, Bellas noted that forecasts remain limited. He said that lower Asian gasoline inventories, stronger demand from Indonesia, and supply gaps in the Middle East, Africa, and Europe have put a floor on price benchmarks.

“Further volatility this week is expected due to the possibility that India would stop Russian oil imports—which could increase demand for supplies from other sources—the decreasing availability of fuel products and crude oil from Russia due to persistent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, and sanctions by the British government on Russia’s biggest energy companies,” Bellas elaborated.