The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Monday, Sept. 29, said the southwest monsoon, or “habagat,” is expected to weaken in the coming weeks, signaling the gradual transition toward the northeast monsoon, or “amihan” season.

This week, PAGASA said the habagat is not expected to have a direct impact on the country, with easterlies, or warm winds from the Pacific Ocean, likely to remain the dominant weather system.

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According to PAGASA weather specialist Munir Baldomero, the agency considers several indicators before declaring the official end of habagat.

These include the absence of significant rainfall over the western section of the country, prevalence of easterlies and northeasterly winds, and the weakening of southwesterly winds.

Baldomero explained that once habagat is terminated, easterlies usually dominate during the transition period before amihan fully sets in.

The transition period, which refers to the gradual shift of the season, is expected to begin between the second and third week of October and may last until the first week of November, depending on prevailing atmospheric conditions.

Last year, PAGASA declared the end of habagat on Oct. 7, while amihan began on Nov. 19.

Habagat typically brings moist southwesterly winds that produce heavy rains over the western sections of Luzon and Visayas, while amihan is associated with cooler, drier northeasterly winds that dominate the country during the latter part of the year.

The habagat season usually begins in the second half of May or early June and lasts until October, while the amihan season usually begins in late October or early November and persists until early March.