Motorists should brace for a potential fuel price increase next week, with per-liter costs for gasoline and diesel expected to rise by more than a peso due to global geopolitical tensions and sanctions.
Based on the four-day trading average of the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS), the price of gasoline could climb by ₱1 to ₱1.20 per liter, while diesel may increase by ₱1.30 to ₱1.50 per liter. Kerosene prices are also anticipated to rise, though by a smaller margin of around ₱0.80 per liter.
These price movements are influenced by several international factors, including U.S. export controls and supply suspensions from major oil-producing nations.
According to Rodela Romero, Director of the Department of Energy's (DOE) Oil Industry Management Bureau (OIMB), the recent price surge is partly a result of U.S. sanctions on Iran's oil revenue. This follows a Reuters report that the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on a network of shipping companies and vessels for alleged Iranian oil smuggling.
Romero also noted that the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia has played a role. She explained that Saudi Aramco and Iraq's state oil marketer, SOMO, have halted exports to India, which imports oil from Russia. This action comes after the European Union's 18th sanctions package on Russia, which targets entities doing business with Russian oil.
Additionally, Jetti Petroleum President Leo Bellas explained that worries of supply disruptions have pressured prices upward.
“Refined fuel supply fundamentals remain sensitive to trade disruptions, including any further escalation in geopolitical tensions,” he said.
Bellas also mentioned that potential changes in production output from OPEC+ could affect prices. While traders initially didn't expect a change, the “prospect that the producer group will consider another hike in production targets in October has pressured prices due to concerns of oversupply,” he stated.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, energy companies increased their crude stocks by 2.4 million barrels as of Aug. 29, anticipating the refinery maintenance season.