Motorists could see relief at the pump next week, as rising oil supply is set to push fuel prices down.

Based on the four-day Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) and the foreign exchange average, gasoline may see a potential decline of ₱0.25 to ₱0.60 per liter, while diesel could see a ₱1.25 to ₱1.50 per liter rollback.

Kerosene prices are also anticipated to slow down by ₱1.20 per liter.

Next week’s projected drop in fuel prices is largely tied to increased output from oil-producing nations, particularly the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+).

The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Oil Industry Management Bureau (OIMB) attributed the upcoming fuel price rollbacks to OPEC+’s planned production increase of 547,000 barrels per day (bpd).

However, skepticism is growing in the oil market as the United States considers taxing buyers of Russian oil.

According to OIMB director Rodela Romero, there is a “Confusion over potential US tariffs on buyers of Russian oil, despite largely supportive US inventory data.”

Jetti Petroleum president Leo Bellas also pointed to the possible end of the Ukraine war and China’s rising production as additional reasons for lower fuel prices.

“Recent developments that raised expectations for a diplomatic end to the war in Ukraine have also caused oil prices to weaken further,” he said.

“Putting pressure on Asian diesel and gasoline price markers is the increasing supply from China as Chinese refiners ramp up production,” Bellas added.

Price drops, however, will not go any higher than ₱2, as Bellas noted a “larger-than-expected” draw in US crude oil.

“[There are] higher Saudi [Arabia] prices for Asia, and solid Chinese crude imports in July,” he added.

Fuel demand will continue to fluctuate depending on geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. trade policies.