The Philippines is facing a growing deficit in its net dollar earnings or current account, placing it in the middle of the pack in the latest macro risk assessment of 27 key emerging markets (EMs) by DBS Bank Ltd.

In a June 17 report authored by DBS senior economist Han Teng Chua and data analytics analyst Daisy Sharma, the Philippines ranked 11th overall among the 27 EMs included in the Singapore-based bank’s annual country risk heatmap for 2024—a notch higher than 12th place in 2023.

The Philippines ranked fifth in 2016; first in 2017; fifth again in 2018 and 2019; and second in 2020. It slid to eighth place in 2021 and fell further to 10th in 2022.

“Within ASEAN [the Association of Southeast Asian Nations], the Philippines and Thailand have dropped, due to weaker public finances and savings-investment balances,” DBS explained.

DBS noted that the Philippines has a savings-investment—or more popularly known as current account—deficit equivalent to 3.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024.

The current account deficit stood at $17.5 billion last year—bigger than the $12.4 billion, or 2.8 percent of GDP, in 2023.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) had projected the current account deficit would widen further to $19.8 billion, or 3.9 percent of GDP, this year.

The latest BSP data released last week showed that the current account deficit doubled to $4.2 billion in the first quarter of 2025 from $2.1 billion a year ago, as the jump in merchandise imports surpassed exports growth.

As such, the current account deficit’s share to GDP rose to 3.7 percent at end-March from 1.9 percent a year ago.

The Philippines’ other metrics earned green marks from DBS: foreign exchange (forex) reserves equivalent to 19.7 percent of GDP; a fiscal deficit equivalent to four percent of GDP; a private debt-to-GDP ratio of 53.4 percent; a general government debt-to-GDP ratio of 57.1 percent; and an external debt ratio of 29.8 percent.

In ASEAN, the Philippines’ 2024 ranking was below Vietnam’s fifth place, Indonesia’s ninth, and Thailand’s 10th, but better than Malaysia’s 21st place.

The best-performing EMs in DBS’ 27-country macro risk analysis for 2024 were Taiwan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Peru, Russia, and Vietnam.

“EM Asia looks fairly healthy: Taiwan, South Korea, and the major Southeast Asian economies (Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines) have some of the best scores in the region. Taiwan has consistently led EM rankings, due to high savings-investment surpluses, which contributed to robust reserves, alongside low government and external debt, despite high private debt,” DBS said.

On the other hand, DBS said that “China, India, and Malaysia rank lower due to their weaker fiscal metrics, notably government debt, and high private debt.” India ranked 16th, while China was in 17th position.

“However, China and India have healthy external finances, partially offsetting their fiscal weaknesses, while Malaysia’s vulnerabilities are partly mitigated by sustained domestic demand, and ongoing structural business and fiscal reforms,” DBS added.

Across EMs, DBS said that “vulnerability indicators have worsened in recent years, as the debt position, cover for foreign obligations, and savings-investment balance have slipped in many countries.”