The massive scale renewable energy (RE) investments being cornered by the Philippine government will drastically reduce the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions of the power industry by 18.34 percent around 2030, which is the timeframe when the country will hit strike on the first major milestone of its energy transition warpath, according to the Department of Energy.

Energy Undersecretary Rowena Cristina L. Guevara emphasized that as capacities of the green energy auction program (GEAP) winners will successively reach commercial stream, the energy sector will experience significant 10.91 percent decline in CO₂ emissions by 2026, which is considerably an early victory in the country’s climate fight; then that will accelerate beyond 18 percent by the turn of the decade.

“GEAP has obvious implications for environmental and socioeconomic benefits. One of the clearest indicators of this is the estimated avoidance of about 80 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) emissions over the duration of the 20-year contracts awarded under the first two rounds of GEA (green energy auction),” she expounded.

The energy official further highlighted that “the full potential of GEA 1-4 estimates 307 million tons CO₂e avoided.”

The first four rounds of renewable energy tenders have covered multiple technologies, and the fifth will focus on offshore wind, while GEA-6 will prioritize biomass and waste-to-energy facilities.

The energy official stressed, “The Philippines has pledged to reduce its GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions by 75 percent by 2030 under its NDC (nationally determined contribution) to the Paris Agreement. If GEA projects were counted, it will be equivalent to an 18.34% reduction in CO₂e emissions by 2030.”

Essentially, 2030 marks a significant turning point in the Philippine energy transition roadmap, when renewables are expected to aggressively increase their share to a commanding 35 percent of the power mix.

Guevara qualified “the GEAP is not only a market tool for energy development, it is also a climate action mechanism that delivers measurable and impactful reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, helping steer the Philippine energy sector toward a low-carbon future.”

The NDC pledge that the Philippine government had previously submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) calls for a 75 percent reduction and avoidance of GHG emissions by 2030, relative to a business-as-usual scenario.

Of the target, 72.29 percent is conditional and that shall be anchored on support funneled from the international community, including those on climate finance, technology transfer, as well as capacity building, primarily in the enforcement of adaptation measures.

Conversely, 2.71 percent of the committed CO2 emissions equivalent reduction shall be drawn from the use of domestic resources, and the country’s climate battle chips are aligned with the Philippine Development Plan, National Climate Change Action Plan, as well as long-term strategy in abating climate change risks.

The country’s decarbonization strategy targets a broad front, and it sets a sharp focus on energy, transport, waste, forestry, agriculture, and industrial processes. 

Ahead of the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) that will be happening right in the heart of the Amazon in Belem, Brazil this November, the Philippines is set to submit its NDC 3.0 which will already be firmed up under the watchful leadership of newly-designated Environment Secretary Raphael Lotilla.