The Department of Energy (DOE) has apprised relevant industry stakeholders that if the line-up of green energy auctions (GEAs) will yield successful outcomes on capacity additions for the country, the generation rates across grids will go down by average ₱0.90 to ₱1.32 per kilowatt hour (kWh) to reach average ₱3 per kilowatt hour (kWh) level by 2029, which is strategically timed immediately after the tenure of the Marcos administration.

Citing simulations from the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP), which is the operator of the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM), Energy Undersecretary Rowena Cristina Guevara conveyed that on the base scenario that had been used as anchor of the calculations, if tendered capacities from GEAs 1 to 5 will all reach commercial operations, Luzon power rates could dip to an average price of ₱3.36 per kWh in 2029 from ₱4.95 per kWh by 2026.

Primarily for 2026, she noted that the minimum price may touch down at  ₱2.56 per kWh and a high ₱7.33 per kWh - with average rates bottoming out at ₱4.95 per kWh; then that will have gradual deflation to an average price of ₱4.51 per kWh by 2027, then with maximum price hitting ₱7.26 per kWh while minimum cost would be ₱3.19 per kWh. By 2028, the average rate may soften further to ₱4.02 per kWh, potentially hitting a low of ₱2.82 per kWh, and the maximum price will also descend to ₱6.81 per kWh.

By 2029, Luzon’s power rates are projected to settle further into the leaner side, averaging ₱3.63 per kWh, with the rate dropping to as low as ₱2.67 per kWh; while the maximum price would also be at a tamer ₱6.62 per kWh.

“RE also holds the promise of lowering long-term electricity prices through economies of scale,” the energy official said.

She qualified that the IEMOP had recently presented to the DOE its latest simulation that “with 100% of GEA 1-5 capacities added to country’s energy mix, WESM prices from 2026 to 2029 are projected to decrease in average by ₱1.32, ₱1.3, and ₱0.9 per kWh in Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, respectively.”

GEAs are the tendering activities being administered by the DOE to hook capital influx across various technologies in the RE sector – ranging from ground-mounted solar, solar rooftop, floating solar, energy storage systems, onshore wind and offshore wind, geothermal, hydro and pumped storage systems, as well as biomass and waste-to-energy installations.

For the Visayas grid, in particular, prices are expected to follow a slow and steady decline, starting at an average of ₱5.28/kWh in 2026 and dropping to ₱3.98 by 2029, with lows flirting with the rock-bottom level of ₱1.51 per kWh.

By 2026, Visayas electricity rates are seen averaging at  ₱5.28 per kWh with a low of  ₱2.07 per kWh and a high of  ₱7.33 per kWh; while added plunge will likewise be seen by 2027 to average  ₱4.62 per kWh on a minimum rate of  ₱1.58 per kWh and maximum of  ₱6.56 per kWh; then 2028 prices will further soften to average  ₱4.19 per kWh, landing a low of  ₱1.51 per kWh and the high side could reach  ₱6.29 per kWh. By 2029, the average will dip to as low as ₱3.98 per kWh, with the minimum price tumbling to ₱1.51 per kWh and the maximum rate reaching ₱6.15 per kWh.

Consumers in Mindanao grid will similarly benefit from the portended downward pricing trend, with average rates in 2026 forecast at ₱4.06 per kWh, and slamming into minimum ₱1.66 per kWh while the highs would be at ₱5.59 per kWh; then that will be moderated further to ₱3.81 per kWh average price in 2027, with minimum price slipping to ₱1.66 per kWh and maximum will drift at ₱5.26 per kWh. 

For 2028, the Mindanao grid average price will further ease to ₱3.38 per kWh; and the minimum price will significantly dive to ₱0.96 per kWh, then the maximum price will be ₱5.15 per kWh; while 2029 prices will be substantially moderated to average price of ₱3.19 per kWh with minimum rates projected in the vicinity of ₱1.44 per kWh while maximum price will also cool off to ₱4.57 per kWh.

Guevara highlighted that the country’s RE sector is already a ₱3.3 trillion industry; and as the country barrels forward into concretizing its energy transition roadmap, robust capital flow is expected with ₱28 trillion to ₱31 trillion worth of additional investments; and this will likewise generate up to 2.49 million jobs for the Filipino people.

“Our drive for energy transition will not only build sustained energy infrastructure for future generations, but we will also reap the economic benefits of retaining a highly skilled workforce in the country,” the energy official stressed.

She expounded that the GEAs being lined up by the DOE “present massive opportunities: faster RE deployment, lower prices, and increased investor confidence.”

Nevertheless, Guevara admitted that there are still sweeping challenges that the industry will need to overcome—fundamentally those on grid integration, permitting, as well as financing concerns, primarily those for new technologies, such as offshore wind and floating solar.