The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Friday, March 21 said there may be “zero to one” tropical cyclone forming or entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in April.
Based on PAGASA's climatological analysis, the typical tracks for tropical cyclones during April suggest four possible scenarios.
The first scenario involves cyclones forming in the western Pacific that may enter the PAR and then “recurve” towards southern Japan.
The second scenario involves cyclones forming in the western Pacific that could enter the PAR and later recurve towards Japan.
The third scenario sees cyclones entering the PAR, crossing the Central Philippines, and then curving towards Japan.
A third scenario involves cyclones that form in the western Pacific and may enter the PAR, traverse the central Philippines, and then recurve towards Japan.
Lastly, some cyclones that form in the western Pacific could enter the PAR, pass through the central Philippines, and move towards Vietnam.
Moreover, from May to September, PAGASA forecasts that one or two tropical cyclones may enter the PAR in May and June, and two or three cyclones may enter the PAR in July, August, and September.