The Philippines is poised to be the world's top rice importer for the third-straight year as local harvest falls short, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The USDA-Foreign Agricultural Service's (FAS) latest "Grain: World Markets and Trade" report on Oct. 11 hiked estimated Philippine rice imports to 4.7 million metric tons (MT) during marketing year (MY) 2023-2024 from 4.6 million MT previously due to "strong buying of Vietnam rice."
For milled rice, the Philippines' MY covers the July-to-June-of-next-year period — this means MY 2023-2024 refers to July 2023 to June 2024, according to the USDA's website.
The USDA defines the local MY as "the 12-month period at the onset of the main harvest, when the crop is marketed (in effect, consumed, traded, or stored)."
Separate commodities price data of the Washington-based World Bank on Oct. 2 showed Vietnam's five-percent broken rice was on a downtrend, averaging $542.7 per MT in the third quarter of 2024 from $567 per MT in the second quarter, $608.4 in the first quarter, and $626.2 in the fourth quarter of 2023.
World Bank data showed Vietnamese exports were cheaper than most rice varieties from Thailand this year.
For the current MY 2024-2025 (July 2024 to June 2025), USDA-FAS also jacked up its Philippine rice import projection to a record-high 4.9 million MT from 4.6 million MT previously, citing a "smaller crop."
In MY 2024-2025, "global rice production is forecast up based on a substantial increase for India more than offsetting a reduction for the Philippines," USDA-FAS said.
Historical USDA data showed that the Philippines' rice imports have been climbing from 2.45 million MT in MY 2019-2020 to 2.95 million MT in 2020-2021, 3.8 million MT in 2021-2022, and 3.9 million MT in 2022-2023 -- the MY it dislodged China as the world's biggest importer.
In USDA-FAS' "World Agricultural Production" report also on Oct. 11, it said rice output in the Philippines in the current MY would be a lower 12.3 million MT (milled basis) than last month's estimate of 12.7 million MT.
In the preceding MY 2023-2024, USDA-FAS data showed milled production in the Philippines also dropped to 12.325 million MT from 2022-2023's 12.625 million MT.
This reflected two consecutive years of declining harvest.
"Harvested area is estimated at 4.7 million hectares (ha), down three percent from last month, and down one percent from last year. Yield (rough basis) is estimated at 4.15 tons per ha, down less than one percent from last month, but up one percent from last year," USDA-FAS said.
Rice is cultivated in the Philippines all-year round, with the biggest outputs usually during the October-to-September (around 38 percent of annual total) and January-to-March (23 percent) quarters of each year.
But USDA-FAS said "dryness in quarter three reduced production."
"Drier-than-normal weather observed in Western Visayas, the main producing province in the third quarter, resulted in lower-than-expected harvested area and production. Western Visayas accounts for roughly 20 percent of the third-quarter output," it noted.
Citing preliminary figures from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), USDA-FAS pointed out that third-quarter rice area and production likewise slid by 14 percent and 12 percent, respectively, year-on-year.
Prior to the drop in MY 2023-2024, rice production in the Philippines was on the rise — from 11.927 million MT in 2019-2020, to 12.416 million MT in 2020-2021, and a further jump to 12.54 million MT in 2021-2022.
With a growing population that mostly eats rice, consumption has been outpacing domestic production: 14.4 million MT were consumed by Filipinos in MY 2019-2020; 14.8 million MT in 2020-2021; 15.4 million MT in 2021-2022; 16.1 million MT in 2022-2023; and 16.6 million MT in 2023-2024, USDA-FAS data showed.
For MY 2024-2025, USDA-FAS estimated consumption of 17.1 million MT, although below the previous month's projection of 17.3 million MT.
This month, USDA-FAS projected the Philippines' rice ending stocks — estimated inventory at the end of the MY — at 3.703 million MT in the current MY, above last month's estimate of 3.603 million MT.
The updated ending stocks estimate exceeded MY 2023-2024's 3.603 million MT, 2022-2023's 3.378 million MT, 2021-2022's 3.103 million MT, and 2020-2021's 2.363 million MT.
In an earlier Oct. 3 "Grain and Feed Update" report, USDA-FAS' Manila office said damage and losses inflicted by recent successive strong typhoons such as "Carina" and "Enteng" would also reduce rice milled production.
"Typhoon 'Carina' devastated 67,432 ha of rice resulting in a 18,629-MT loss. Most of the damage and losses to rice were in newly planted and vegetative stages. Of the damage to rice farms, 73 percent of the damaged area has a chance for recovery while the remaining 27 percent is unrecoverable. Given the need to replant and reduced water availability in some areas after the typhoon, farmer contacts report delays in their cropping calendar," FAS Manila's report read.
Meanwhile, typhoon "Enteng" just last month "affected 34,935 hectares of rice resulting in a 48,646-MT loss" with "most of the damage and losses to rice were in the reproductive and maturity stages," FAS Manila said.
"Of the damaged rice farms, 80 percent were partially damaged while the remaining 20 percent were totally damaged" by "Enteng," it added.
The unpredictable weather likewise slashed corn production in the country for MY 2024-2025 to 8.3 million MT, lower than the estimated 8.5 million MT last month although higher than the preceding MY's 8.1 million MT.
From July to September, PSA data showed corn area and production were both smaller by two percent year-on-year. This quarter historically yielded about 29 percent of yearly corn output.
"The reductions come as a result of below-average rainfall observed in both the top two corn-producing regions, Cagayan Valley and Mindanao. Corn prospects in these regions are dependent on rainfall to achieve favorable yields," USDA-FAS explained.
As such, corn imports in the current MY will increase to 1.35 million MT from 1.3 million MT in the previous MY.