Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) is counting on the return of El Niño to salvage its full-year sales targets, relying on seasonal heat to counter deeper shift marked by slumping industrial demand and the rapid adoption of rooftop solar.

Ronnie Aperocho, Meralco chief operating officer, said electricity sales are set to pick up as rising temperatures drive air conditioning use across its franchise area.

Energy demand jumped 6.9 percent in July, providing an early signal of recovery after a sluggish start to the year.

“I think that growth will be sustained, and we will be ending this year [with a] range of two to 2.5 percent sales growth,” Aperocho said.

The utility needs the boost as first-half sales volume slipped 0.5 percent to 26,967 gigawatt-hours from 27,091 gigawatt-hours a year earlier, even as Meralco’s total customer base expanded to 8.3 million.

The disconnect stems largely from the changing nature of its client base. About 50 percent of all new connections are residential consumers, many of whom are installing their own solar panels to mitigate high power rates. That trend is actively cannibalizing grid demand just as new accounts come online.

Elevated electricity tariffs have also forced widespread conservation efforts. Commercial establishments, including major shopping malls, have curtailed operating hours to shave power expenses.

Meanwhile, the industrial segment took a direct hit following the permanent shutdown of several steel manufacturing plants in the country.

To recoup revenue lost to private solar systems, Meralco is moving to capture the rooftop market itself. Through its subsidiary MSpectrum Inc., the power distributor is pitching zero-down-payment solar installations to commercial and residential clients, financing the hardware internally and bundling the supply into long-term power purchase agreements.

“We’ll be installing the rooftop solars, wherein the customer doesn’t need to spend out-of-pocket cost,” Aperocho said. “We’ll be financing it, and subject it to a power supply agreement.”