In the prevailing, highly volatile political climate—exacerbated by maritime bullying in the West Philippine Sea that creates an air of uncertainty—it is only natural for foreign investors to take a risk-averse stance toward the country.

Yes, Virginia, while the President has been going around the globe trying to sell the Philippines to foreign investors, the fractured alliance between the top two elected officials of the land isn’t helping to market the country as an alternative investment haven.

Against this backdrop, I was stunned to hear the latest news circulating in business circles: PT Barito Renewable Energy, owned by Indonesian billionaire Prajogo Pangestu, has tendered an unsolicited proposal to acquire the Lopez family-controlled Energy Development Corp. (EDC) lock, stock, and barrel.

This perked up my curiosity, as this nosy parker hadn’t heard that the country’s largest geothermal firm was on the auction block. What makes the offer even more surprising is that it comes amid ongoing corporate noise between two Lopez heirs.

I do believe caveat emptor is at work here, wherein the Indonesian buyer is fully aware of—yet nonchalant about—the intra-corporate battle. Be that as it may, market guesstimates value EDC, including its outstanding obligations, at as much as $7 billion.

Imagine the positive effect $7 billion would have on the financial system! The amount could very well lift the sagging value of the local currency, which, as I write this piece, closed at P61.746 to the dollar during early morning trading in the spot currency market.

In peso terms, an offer price of $5 billion is roughly equivalent to ₱380.75 billion and could hit a whopping ₱432.25 billion based on the $7 billion market guesstimate. Monetary authorities would just love for this deal to push through.

But wait—hold your horses for now! Nothing is concrete yet. First Gen Corp. (First Gen), which holds majority control of EDC, said the offer is preliminary, as negotiations have yet to commence.

Ownership Structure 101: First Gen is the primary holding company for First Philippine Holdings Corp.’s (FPH) power generation and energy-related businesses. FPH directly and indirectly owns 67.84 percent of the common stock of First Gen, while Lopez Holdings Corp. owns 55.66 percent of FPH.

On the other hand, EDC, prior to its privatization, was a government-owned and controlled corporation under the Philippine National Oil Co. Involved in alternative energy projects, including geothermal, EDC was acquired by the Lopez Group in 2007.

It was delisted from the stock exchange in 2018, and its ownership narrowed down to two groups, with First Gen holding the controlling voting interest through Red Vulcan Holdings, its acquisition vehicle.

Now, back to the issue at hand. First Gen emphasized that PT Barito’s offer remains an unsolicited proposal and is still subject to due diligence, documentation, and regulatory approvals.

That’s right, Virginia—nothing is firm at the moment. However, in business, billion-dollar expressions of interest are not made lightly. Interested buyers do not spend months studying assets, industries, and management teams simply to make a symbolic proposal.

Companies make a tender offer because they believe there is value worth pursuing. For close to two decades, EDC has quietly become one of the country’s top energy firms, operating the largest geothermal portfolio and expanding into hydro, wind, and solar power.

It goes without saying that such a track record was built through consistent execution, long-term planning, and a strategy that transformed First Gen into one of the country’s leading clean energy companies.

And surely, the equities market has recognized this distinction, as reflected by the surge in the trading of First Gen shares.

The surge in the churning of First Gen shares in the midst of an intensely public family conflict is a clear signal that the market is not particularly interested in conflicting family narratives.

Simply put: it’s a reflection of investor optimism regarding the potential value embedded in the company’s renewable energy portfolio.

Whether PT Barito ultimately ends up owning EDC, to this market observer, its interest is undeniably a vote of confidence in the value First Gen has created, as well as a tacit affirmation of the firm’s leadership.