The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) is monitoring a low-pressure area (LPA) outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) that has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours.

PAGASA weather specialist Loriedin dela Cruz-Galicia said the weather disturbance was located about 2,700 kilometers east of Eastern Samar as of Wednesday afternoon, June 17.

Dela Cruz-Galicia said that based on PAGASA’s latest track analysis, the LPA may enter the PAR by Sunday, June 21, as a cyclone, when it will be named “Francisco.”

She said the weather disturbance is expected to only briefly pass through the PAR as it recurves toward southern Japan, leaving only a slim chance of landfall in the Philippines.

“Nanatiling mababa ang chance na ito ay mag-landfall sa ilang bahagi ng ating kalupaan (The chance that this will make landfall in any part of our country remains low),” dela Cruz-Galicia said.

“Gayunpaman, ang nakikita po nating senaryo ay maaari po itong mag-enhance ng southwest monsoon o habagat by next week (However, the scenario we are seeing is that it may enhance the southwest monsoon or habagat by next week),” she added.

She urged the public to continue monitoring updates regarding this weather disturbance.

At present, the easterlies, or warm winds from the Pacific Ocean, continue to be the country’s dominant weather system, affecting Southern Luzon, Visayas, and eastern Mindanao

“Wala po tayong inaasahang malawakan o widespread na pag-ulan sa malaking bahagi ng ating bansa (We are not expecting widespread rainfall across most parts of the country),” dela Cruz-Galicia said.

She said hot and humid conditions are expected from midday to afternoon, but localized thunderstorms in the late afternoon to evening may still occur.