The Philippines faces a surge in demand for cooling systems as temperatures climb, yet persistent policy gaps and a heavy reliance on coal threaten to undermine the nation’s energy security and climate targets, according to the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE).

The country’s power grid, already strained during peak summer months, may face further pressure as air conditioning penetration—currently estimated between five percent and 15 percent—is projected to jump by as much as 600 percent by 2030.

ACE classified the Philippines as a “lower-income” market in terms of cooling access, grouping it with Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar, all of which are seeing rapid adoption of climate-control technologies due to intensifying heat stress.

While the Philippine government has committed to increasing the share of renewable energy in its power mix to 35 percent by 2030, the regional energy monitor warned that the country remains an outlier for its continued dependence on coal-fired generation. This reliance creates a paradox where the tools used to combat heat contribute to the carbon emissions driving global temperature rises.

The ACE study suggested that a shift toward passive cooling systems (PCS)—which utilize natural ventilation, specialized shading, and thermal insulation to minimize heat gain—could reduce energy consumption for cooling by 22 percent. Such a transition would significantly lower the country’s carbon footprint and alleviate the burden on the aging energy infrastructure.

However, the adoption of these systems remains hindered by systemic hurdles. ACE noted that while the technical and economic benefits of passive cooling are increasingly evident, market transformation is stalled by a lack of awareness, insufficient financing options, and a fragmented regulatory framework.

In the Philippines, the report cited a specific lack of progress in policy development. Regulatory gaps and the weak enforcement of existing building codes have prevented sustainable cooling solutions from reaching mass-market scale. This is particularly critical for industrial sectors that require intensive temperature control for operations.

With less than four years remaining before the start of the 2030 decade, ACE urged more aggressive collaboration between the public and private sectors. The organization emphasized that clear policy signals are necessary to shield end-users from the price volatility of fossil fuels and to ensure that the cooling expansion does not lead to a spike in electricity costs for households and businesses already facing high utility rates.