Senator Sherwin Gatchalian believes that the Philippines could struggle to hit its 5 percent economic growth target this year due to lingering domestic challenges and the escalating tensions in the Middle East.

In a radio interview with Usapang Senado over DWIZ on Saturday, March 7, Gatchalian was asked about the potential impact of the conflict, amid projections that it could last four to eight weeks.

Gatchalian said that last year’s economic slowdown complicates the situation.

“Actually, ang konteksto kasi nito ay nanggaling tayo sa isang mahinang economic growth noong 2025 dahil nga dito sa flood control. Kung matatandaan natin dahil dito sa flood control issue, bumagal yung ating ekonomiya (Actually, the context here is that we came from a weak economic growth in 2025 due to the flood control issue. If you recall, because of this flood control issue, our economy slowed down)," he explained.

"Ang last economic growth natin, last year economic growth is about 4.4 percent. Mababa ito doon sa target na 5 percent. At dahil dyan, ang projection this year ay binabaan natin. Ang projection ngayon ay 5 percent to 6 percent. So ibig sabihin, sinadyang binaba ang projection dahil nga nanggaling tayo sa mabagal na economic growth (Our last economic growth, last year’s economic growth, was about 4.4 percent. This is below the 5 percent target. Because of that, we have lowered this year’s projection. The current projection is 5 percent to 6 percent. So that means the projection was intentionally lowered because we came from a period of slow economic growth),” he added.

He stressed that timely government action was key to weathering the combined challenges.

Gatchalian acknowledged that the country did not anticipate the convergence of these challenges, which he described as “simultaneous unfortunate events".

He said whether the Philippines can withstand the impact of these events depends on the government's implementation of the right policies, as well as quick action.

“If we implement the correct policies and the government moves quickly, we can overcome this,” he said, as he emphasized that speed was crucial given the rapid rise in petroleum prices.

When asked if Middle East tensions could further drag down growth, he said hitting the lower end of the target could be difficult.

“Ako, personal forecast ko, mahirapan tayong matamaan yung 5 percent growth rate. Yan ang isang binabantayan namin sa Finance Committee, yung paggastos ng gobyerno. Dahil last year, nung pumutok yung flood control, bumagal yung paggastos ng gobyerno. At yan ang naging dahilan kung bakit mababa yung ating economic growth (Personally, my forecast is that it will be difficult for us to reach the 5 percent growth rate. This is something we are closely monitoring in the Finance Committee, particularly government spending. Last year, when the flood control issue occurred, government spending slowed down, and that was the reason why our economic growth was low),” he said.

Gatchalian also pointed to rising oil prices and inflation as additional pressures that could further slow economic growth.

“Imagine, our economic growth is already going down yet petroleum prices are still high. The inflation figure for February just came out — it went up to 2.2. So all of these can contribute to another slowdown in our economy. That’s why I’m not optimistic that we will reach our target,” he said.