Investors in the equity market are bracing for a week of high-stakes data releases, with February inflation figures and a heavy slate of United States (US) economic indicators expected to dictate the trajectory of the benchmark index.

After a strong finish in February, the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) faces critical test as market participants weigh local price stability against the “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment in the US.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is scheduled to release February inflation data on Thursday. Economists suggest the print will be a primary domestic catalyst, determining whether the central bank can maintain its current policy path or if it must align with a more hawkish global consensus.

The BSP has projected February inflation to settle within a range of 2.3 percent to 3.1 percent, up from two percent in January, driven by higher costs for rice, fish, and fuel.

Global sentiment is entering the final stretch of the first quarter anchored by a dense data calendar. The upcoming release of manufacturing and services PMI data from major economies will serve as a health check for global growth, according to analysts at 2TradeAsia.com. These figures will lead into Friday’s US payrolls data, which remains a focal point for markets sensitive to employment resilience.

The PSEi ended February with momentum, supported by the resurgence in foreign fund inflows and a stabilizing peso. While earnings per share growth for the fourth quarter and full-year 2025 has been limited to single or low-double digits, the steady expansion is being viewed favorably against current market valuations. This affirmation of the local economic trajectory has helped rehabilitate international investor perception.

As foreign desks rebuild their Philippine allocations, sector-specific attention is shifting toward heavily weighted holdings in financials and property. These sectors stand to benefit most from improving macro-stability and earnings clarity.

While volatility may surface around the inflation print, the underlying trend suggests a "buy on dips" environment, even as the index tests psychological resistance levels.

Valuations in the property sector remain compelling, trading at a steep discount to net asset value compared with historical norms.

Wendy B. Estacio-Cruz, head of research at Unicapital Securities, identified SM Prime Holdings Inc. as a top pick due to its significant exposure to the retail business. SM Prime’s retail segment accounts for almost two-thirds of its total revenue, offering stable and resilient earnings compared with its peers.

In the utilities space, analysts favor Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) and Aboitiz Power Corp. for their visible income streams and growth narratives. Within the renewable energy sector, "buy" ratings are maintained for Citicore Renewable Energy Corp. and Alternergy Holdings Corp. as contracted projects begin operations.

In the consumer sector, Puregold Price Club Inc. is noted for trading 38 percent lower than the sector average despite robust earnings, while Jollibee Foods Corp. remains under observation following the planned spin-off of its international business.