Manila is working on the assumption that key exports including semiconductors and agricultural products will remain exempt from new United States (US) trade levies, even as confusion mounts over the final rate to be imposed by the Trump administration.

Finance Secretary Frederick D. Go said the government expects existing carve-outs to persist regardless of whether Washington implements a 15 percent across-the-board tariff.

“What we are hopeful for, and what we assume it to be, is that if they apply the 15 percent tariffs on us, it will continue to apply to the goods that they were previously applying a 19 percent tariff on,” Go told reporters during a Social Security System (SSS) event on Thursday, Feb. 26.

Go noted that Manila is seeking official clarification from Washington as part of the broader inquiry by more than 150 trading partners.

The lack of clarity follows a week of shifting policy signals from Washington. After the US Supreme Court struck down previous trade enforcement measures, President Donald Trump initially announced a 10 percent global levy before suggesting a higher 15 percent rate.

While US Customs and Border Protection began applying the 10 percent rate this week, the administration has signaled that work continues on an increase to 15 percent.

“What we are hopeful for, and what we assume it to be, is that if they apply the 15 percent tariffs on us, it will continue to apply to the goods that they were previously applying a 19 percent tariff on,” Go said.

He added that the administration’s baseline assumption is that semiconductors and major agricultural exports—the backbone of Philippine trade with the US—will be excluded from the new 15 percent regime.

The Philippines currently finds itself in a precarious but potentially “good spot,” according to Go.

The country’s exports had previously been subjected to a 19 percent reciprocal tariff. A move to a 10 percent or 15 percent global baseline could represent a relative improvement in trade costs, provided the exemptions for high-value electronics and fruit exports hold.

Maybank estimates suggested the effective reciprocal tariff rate for Philippine goods has already eased to 17.1 percent from 18.5 percent following recent US policy adjustments.

Despite the optimistic tone, the economic team is accelerating efforts to diversify the country’s trade portfolio to hedge against further volatility in the US trade policy. 
Go said that the Philippines must open new markets as global economies renegotiate their standing with the US.

The US remains one of the Philippines' largest trading partners, with total exports to the country reaching ₱815.17 billion last year. Semiconductors alone account for a significant portion of that volume, making the continuation of exemptions critical for the country’s industrial growth targets.