ADVERTISEMENT
Manila Bulletin devider Business devider The Economy devider Philippines on track for top-20 economy status by 2050, but corruption a growth risk—Capital Economics

Philippines on track for top-20 economy status by 2050, but corruption a growth risk—Capital Economics

Published Feb 19, 2026 06:15 pm  |  Updated Feb 19, 2026 03:55 pm

The Philippines is poised to climb the ranks of the world’s 20 largest economies in the coming decades, yet persistent governance challenges could temper its growth, according to London-based think tank Capital Economics.

In its Long-Run Economic Outlook 2026 report released on Feb. 18, Capital Economics projected the Philippines will rise from 30th place in 2025 to become the 19th-largest economy globally by 2050 in nominal gross domestic product (GDP) terms.

The Philippines’ nominal GDP is expected to grow by an average of 5.1 percent annually from 2031 to reach $3.51 trillion in 2050.

“We are also reasonably upbeat about the prospects for Indonesia, Bangladesh, and the Philippines,” Capital Economics said, such that “Vietnam, the Philippines, and Bangladesh will have all entered into the top 20” 25 years from now.

Fast-rising Vietnam is set to overtake the Philippines, from 31st place last year to 14th by 2050, with a nominal GDP estimated to hit $4.6 trillion. In terms of nominal GDP per capita, Vietnam would also overtake its two Southeast Asian neighbors 25 years from now, projected at $41,959, higher than the Philippines’ $24,265 and Indonesia’s $28,128—making the Vietnamese richer than Filipinos and Indonesians by that time.

Despite the positive long-term outlook, Capital Economics flagged risks to the Philippines’ growth trajectory. “Entrenched corruption and political instability could also weigh on growth prospects” in the country, it warned.

Data from the report indicate that the Philippines’ GDP is expected to expand further in the near term before gradually moderating in the coming decades.

After growing by an average of 6.4 percent pre-pandemic from 2010 to 2019 and a subpar 3.3 percent from 2020 to 2025, the think tank forecasts the economy to grow by an average of six percent annually from 2026 to 2030, easing to 5.5 percent from 2031 to 2040, and moderating further to 4.7 percent between 2041 and 2050.

The think tank’s growth forecasts for 2026 to 2028, if realized, would fall within the government’s lowered targets of five to six percent for 2026, 5.5 to 6.5 percent for 2027, and six to seven percent for 2028.

Capital Economics estimates Philippine productivity growth to rebound to 4.6 percent from 2026 to 2030 from just 1.3 percent in 2020 to 2025 and 4.5 percent in 2010 to 2019, before slowing to 4.1 percent in 2031 to 2040 and 3.8 percent in 2041 to 2050.

On inflation, the think tank projects domestic consumer prices to grow by 2.7 percent annually from 2026 to 2030, rising to three percent from 2031 to 2050, remaining within the government’s two- to four-percent target range of annual price hikes deemed manageable and conducive to economic growth.

Capital Economics’ long-term forecasts come after a sharp slowdown last year, when the Philippine economy expanded below target.

According to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), GDP growth slowed to 4.4 percent in 2025—the weakest full-year expansion in nine years and the lowest since the peak of Covid-19 lockdowns—following stalled public and private investments in the aftermath of a billion-peso flood-control corruption scandal.

The 2025 shortfall marked the third consecutive year that the Marcos Jr. administration missed its annual growth targets, falling short of the government’s slashed 5.5- to 6.5-percent goal.

Inflation remained subdued, with the full-year rate averaging 1.7 percent—the lowest in nine years, or the lowest since 2016, when it stood at 1.3 percent—even as December saw a slight uptick to 1.8 percent, driven mainly by higher prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages.

ADVERTISEMENT
.most-popular .layout-ratio{ padding-bottom: 79.13%; } @media (min-width: 768px) and (max-width: 1024px) { .widget-title { font-size: 15px !important; } }

{{ articles_filter_1561_widget.title }}

{{ item.title }}
.most-popular .layout-ratio{ padding-bottom: 79.13%; } @media (min-width: 768px) and (max-width: 1024px) { .widget-title { font-size: 15px !important; } }

{{ articles_filter_1562_widget.title }}

{{ item.title }}
.most-popular .layout-ratio{ padding-bottom: 79.13%; } @media (min-width: 768px) and (max-width: 1024px) { .widget-title { font-size: 15px !important; } }

{{ articles_filter_1563_widget.title }}

{{ item.title }}

{{ articles_filter_1564_widget.title }}

{{ item.title }}
.mb-article-details { position: relative; } .mb-article-details .article-body-preview, .mb-article-details .article-body-summary{ font-size: 17px; line-height: 30px; font-family: "Libre Caslon Text", serif; color: #000; } .mb-article-details .article-body-preview iframe , .mb-article-details .article-body-summary iframe{ width: 100%; margin: auto; } .read-more-background { background: linear-gradient(180deg, color(display-p3 1.000 1.000 1.000 / 0) 13.75%, color(display-p3 1.000 1.000 1.000 / 0.8) 30.79%, color(display-p3 1.000 1.000 1.000) 72.5%); position: absolute; height: 200px; width: 100%; bottom: 0; display: flex; justify-content: center; align-items: center; padding: 0; } .read-more-background a{ color: #000; } .read-more-btn { padding: 17px 45px; font-family: Inter; font-weight: 700; font-size: 18px; line-height: 16px; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; border: 1px solid black; background-color: white; } .hidden { display: none; }
function initializeAllSwipers() { // Get all hidden inputs with cms_article_id document.querySelectorAll('[id^="cms_article_id_"]').forEach(function (input) { const cmsArticleId = input.value; const articleSelector = '#article-' + cmsArticleId + ' .body_images'; const swiperElement = document.querySelector(articleSelector); if (swiperElement && !swiperElement.classList.contains('swiper-initialized')) { new Swiper(articleSelector, { loop: true, pagination: false, navigation: { nextEl: '#article-' + cmsArticleId + ' .swiper-button-next', prevEl: '#article-' + cmsArticleId + ' .swiper-button-prev', }, }); } }); } setTimeout(initializeAllSwipers, 3000); const intersectionObserver = new IntersectionObserver( (entries) => { entries.forEach((entry) => { if (entry.isIntersecting) { const newUrl = entry.target.getAttribute("data-url"); if (newUrl) { history.pushState(null, null, newUrl); let article = entry.target; // Extract metadata const author = article.querySelector('.author-section').textContent.replace('By', '').trim(); const section = article.querySelector('.section-info ').textContent.replace(' ', ' '); const title = article.querySelector('.article-title h1').textContent; // Parse URL for Chartbeat path format const parsedUrl = new URL(newUrl, window.location.origin); const cleanUrl = parsedUrl.host + parsedUrl.pathname; // Update Chartbeat configuration if (typeof window._sf_async_config !== 'undefined') { window._sf_async_config.path = cleanUrl; window._sf_async_config.sections = section; window._sf_async_config.authors = author; } // Track virtual page view with Chartbeat if (typeof pSUPERFLY !== 'undefined' && typeof pSUPERFLY.virtualPage === 'function') { try { pSUPERFLY.virtualPage({ path: cleanUrl, title: title, sections: section, authors: author }); } catch (error) { console.error('ping error', error); } } // Optional: Update document title if (title && title !== document.title) { document.title = title; } } } }); }, { threshold: 0.1 } ); function showArticleBody(button) { const article = button.closest("article"); const summary = article.querySelector(".article-body-summary"); const body = article.querySelector(".article-body-preview"); const readMoreSection = article.querySelector(".read-more-background"); // Hide summary and read-more section summary.style.display = "none"; readMoreSection.style.display = "none"; // Show the full article body body.classList.remove("hidden"); } document.addEventListener("DOMContentLoaded", () => { let loadCount = 0; // Track how many times articles are loaded const offset = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]; // Offset values const currentUrl = window.location.pathname.substring(1); let isLoading = false; // Prevent multiple calls if (!currentUrl) { console.log("Current URL is invalid."); return; } const sentinel = document.getElementById("load-more-sentinel"); if (!sentinel) { console.log("Sentinel element not found."); return; } function isSentinelVisible() { const rect = sentinel.getBoundingClientRect(); return ( rect.top < window.innerHeight && rect.bottom >= 0 ); } function onScroll() { if (isLoading) return; if (isSentinelVisible()) { if (loadCount >= offset.length) { console.log("Maximum load attempts reached."); window.removeEventListener("scroll", onScroll); return; } isLoading = true; const currentOffset = offset[loadCount]; window.loadMoreItems().then(() => { let article = document.querySelector('#widget_1690 > div:nth-last-of-type(2) article'); intersectionObserver.observe(article) loadCount++; }).catch(error => { console.error("Error loading more items:", error); }).finally(() => { isLoading = false; }); } } window.addEventListener("scroll", onScroll); });
Join Our Newsletters

Sign up by email to receive news.

© 2025 Manila Bulletin The Nation's Leading Newspaper. All Rights Reserved.