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Manila Bulletin devider Business devider Trade & Industry devider Metro Manila condo vacancy to peak near 25% before relief in 2027

Metro Manila condo vacancy to peak near 25% before relief in 2027

Published Feb 18, 2026 04:39 pm
Metro Manila’s residential vacancy rates are set to edge higher through 2026 as a wave of new condominium completions hits the market, though a slowdown in construction is expected to provide relief by the following year, according to Colliers.
The real estate consultancy, in a report released on Wednesday, Feb. 18, projected that the vacancy rate in the national capital region (NCR) will rise to 24.9 percent by the end of this year, but is expected to retreat to 23.9 percent in 2027 as the pipeline of new units thins.
The Bay Area remains a particular point of concern, with vacancy levels in that district forecast to hover above 50 percent through 2026.
Despite the supply pressure, Colliers expects a marginal recovery in residential prices starting next year. The scheduled turnover of several premium and ultra-luxury developments in the Makati Central Business District and Fort Bonifacio is expected to provide a floor for capital values.
Colliers outlook follows a fourth-quarter 2025 performance where secondary market vacancies eased slightly to 24.7 percent from 25 percent in the preceding three months. Demand in core hubs such as Rockwell and Ortigas Center has remained resilient, supported by a mix of local professionals and expatriate tenants.
Inventory levels have also shown signs of stabilization as the stock of unsold condominiums in Metro Manila improved significantly in late 2025, retreating from a record high where inventory life reached 13.4 years in the second quarter.
The recovery was fueled by aggressive promotional campaigns for both ready-for-occupancy and pre-selling units. However, Colliers cautioned that the ability of developers to maintain deep discounts and attractive payment terms for completed units may be limited moving forward.
Joey Roi Bondoc, Colliers Philippines director of research, said the improvement in inventory life suggests a shifting landscape for developers.
He noted that property firms are increasingly looking toward geographic diversification and master-planned differentiation to capture evolving market appetite.
Beyond the capital, large-scale township projects are expected to drive activity, while within Metro Manila, some firms are pivoting toward lot-only developments to cater to investors seeking alternatives to compressing condominium yields.
The luxury segment remains a focal point for the market over the next 24 months. Notable completions scheduled for 2026 include RLC-Shang’s Aurelia Residences in Fort Bonifacio, alongside Arthaland’s Eluria and Alveo Land’s Parkford Suites in Makati.
The pipeline for 2027 includes high-end projects such as The Estate by SMDC and Federal Land, and The Seasons Residences – Fuyu. Prices for these units range from ₱20 million to as high as ₱160 million, with take-up rates reaching as high as 100 percent for certain premier developments as of the end of 2025.
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