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Manila Bulletin devider Business devider The Stock Market devider Stocks eye GDP data to spark recovery after slump

Stocks eye GDP data to spark recovery after slump

Published Jan 26, 2026 12:00 am  |  Updated Jan 24, 2026 03:21 pm
Equity investors are looking to upcoming gross domestic product (GDP) data to catalyze recovery after sharp correction last week pushed valuations to levels market analysts describe as bargain territory.
The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) retreated below the 6,400 psychological threshold last week, snapping a four-week winning streak. The downturn was fueled by a combination of offshore trading volatility and intensifying geopolitical concerns that dampened risk appetite.
Despite the slide, some analysts view the pullback as tactical entry point as Japhet Tantiangco, research manager at Philstocks Financial, noted that the local bourse is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.5 times.
This represents a significant discount compared to the historical average of 14.4 times and the broader regional average of 19.4 times.
Market sentiment now hinges on the fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 GDP print. The data will serve as a definitive barometer for the economy's trajectory and could determine whether the index finds a floor or slides further.
Tantiangco said a meaningful acceleration from the 4.0 percent growth recorded in the third quarter could ignite a relief rally, while a sub-par reading would likely exacerbate the current selloff.
In addition to domestic data, the market is navigating a complex global backdrop. Investors are closely monitoring the Philippine peso, which has shown signs of a nascent recovery. A sustained appreciation of the local currency is expected to provide a technical tailwind for equities.
However, global macro conditions remain fraught. Online brokerage 2TradeAsia.com observed that escalating geopolitical frictions have triggered a pronounced flight to safety, driving up the prices of precious metals as capital shifts away from fiat currencies and sovereign bonds. While the pivot away from the US dollar may benefit emerging markets, the brokerage warned that a high geopolitical risk premium continues to weigh on the cost of equity for regional risk assets.
Within the local market, specific sectors are decoupling from the broader malaise. Mining and materials stocks have seen renewed interest as producers capture the upside of a global commodity rally.
Abacus Securities Corp. remains bullish on Apex Mining Co., citing the dramatic surge in gold prices. The metal rose by $700 per ounce in the fourth quarter, a massive jump from the $170-per-ounce increase seen in the third quarter, which had already propelled the miner to its highest net profit in 15 years.
In the leisure space, COL Financial maintained a buy rating on Bloomberry Resorts Corp. The brokerage anticipates that the new visa-free policy for Chinese nationals could revive the VIP segment at Solaire Resort and Casino.
Nevertheless, analysts cautioned that persistent difficulties in moving capital between China and the Philippines remain a headwind for a full recovery in the gaming sector. As global volatility persists, 2TradeAsia.com advises investors to maintain liquidity while the market digests the current period of realignment.

Related Tags

Philippine Stock Exchange index Philstocks Financial Japhet Tantiangco 2TradeAsia.com COL Financial Abacus Securities Corporation
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