Tensions and conflict in the South China Sea (SCS) will not diminish in the foreseeable future as China increases its activities to tighten its grip on the key waterway, National Security Adviser (NSA) Eduardo Año said on Tuesday, May 6.

In his speech at an online forum titled “Scarborough Shoal: Facing Facts and Exploring Options,” Año said that the Philippine government recognizes that challenges in the SCS “are unlikely to diminish anytime soon.” 

“The situation becomes even more complex due to potential flashpoints in the area, which continue to evolve amid rising geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions and shifting global security dynamics,” he said at the forum organized by Stratbase Institute and Stanford University's Sealight Project.

Año blamed China’s “baseless, excessive, and expansive territorial claims, militarization, and confrontations with its neighbors” as the primary factors why tensions in the SCS continue to escalate.

According to Sealight Project, China doubled its paramilitary force at Scarborough Shoal in the past two years. China seized the shoal in 2012 after a three-month standoff with the Philippines.

Based on Sealight Project’s satellite imagery, the number of China Coast Guard (CCG) and maritime militia vessels around Scarborough Shoal rose from 57 ships (May 2023 to April 2024) to 78 ships (May 2024 to April 2025) in the past two years.

This translated to an increase in the number of Automatic Identification System (AIS) transmissions captured by China: from 724,000 (May 2023 to April 2024) to 1,573,000 (May 2024 to April 2025).

“China has really doubled down on its strategy to take control of Scarborough Shoal, to change the facts on the water, if you will, or the facts on the shoal to sort of enforce its claim to own or to be sovereign over Scarborough Shoal,” said Sealight Project director Ray Powell.

The Sealight Project also that the Philippines expanded the number of deployed vessels to Scarborough Shoal, from seven ships which captured 55,000 AIS transmissions (May 2023 to April 2024) to 11 ships and 217,000 AIS transmissions (May 2024 to April 2025).

While the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) and Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) tried to match the intensity of the Chinese activities by increasing its presence at Scarborough Shoal during the same period, Powell said they were being “overwhelmed” by the sheer volume of the Chinese ships.

Securing WPS

Año believes that such complexities are not easy to navigate, although he noted that the clarion call for peace and the rule of law is embedded in the core of the Filipinos “even when our lawful interests and rights are being endangered and compromised.”

As such, Año stressed that securing Scarborough Shoal and the WPS equates to the survival of the Philippines and the Filipino people.

“China’s continued presence in Scarborough Shoal since 2012, after a three-month standoff, is a clear contrast to what we advance in our collective pursuit of a stable, just, and rules-based maritime order. Even more concerning, our other rightful territories, not just Bajo de Masinloc, have been subjected to adverse claims and illegal occupation or control,” he said.

Año said the National Security Council (NSC) has ensured that its strategies to protect and advance the country’s national interests are “well-coordinated and synergized—maximizing all instruments of national power and mixing the right combinations of initiatives” to counter the “illegal, coercive, aggressive, and deceptive actions” of China.

“To do these, we continue to work on addressing gaps such as crafting a long-term policy for the WPS—one which would transcend administrations in order to ensure its continuity and sustainment as the government pursues our agenda in view of geopolitics and international relations,” he said.

“We have also taken important steps in building and developing defense and civilian maritime law enforcement capabilities, capacitating human resources, and capitalizing on existing and new security partnerships with like-minded allies. A robust, credible, and self-reliant defense system is on top of our priorities to meet any challenge to our sovereignty, sovereign rights, and maritime jurisdictions,” he added.