The Pork Producers Federation of the Philippines Inc. (ProPork) expects government efforts to restore the country’s pig population to pre-African Swine Fever (ASF) levels to bear fruit by 2030, rather than 2028.

“At the rate of implementation for the government’s repopulation programs, which have been delayed, they will only accomplish their objective of restoring the population by 2030,” said ProPork President Erik Harina in an interview last week.

The Department of Agriculture (DA) aims to bring the domestic hog inventory back to around 13 million heads by 2028 through initiatives designed to boost productivity.

Under its ₱1.6-billion swine repopulation program, the DA plans to procure around 32,000 gilts, or young female pigs that have not yet given birth, to distribute to multiplier farms for breeding and piglet redistribution.

“No pigs have been purchased or delivered to recipients yet, and it is already September, with the year nearing its end,” Harina noted.

He added that even if the DA rolls out the program early next year, the country’s hog population will likely only reach pre-ASF levels by 2030.

Based on preliminary data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), total hog inventory fell to 8.93 million heads by the end of June from 9.01 million heads a year ago.

Smallholder farms accounted for the bulk of the herd at 7.08 million heads, followed by commercial farms with 1.7 million heads and semi-commercial farms with 149,216 heads.

To ensure sustained recovery in hog supply, Harina said the government must complement its repopulation push with aggressive vaccination drives, as the threat of ASF persists.

Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI) data showed that as of Aug. 7, active ASF cases were still present across 60 barangays in 41 municipalities across 20 provinces.

Additionally, ProPork is pressing the government to restore original tariff rates under the minimum access volume (MAV) system for pork imports. Currently, imported pork within the 204,210-metric ton (MT) quota carries a 15-percent tariff, while out-of-quota shipments are taxed at 25 percent. ProPork wants to raise these rates to 30 percent and 40 percent, respectively.

Harina argued that higher tariffs would curb the inflow of cheaper pork imports, giving local hog raisers stronger incentive to expand production. He noted that higher duties would also generate additional revenue for the Animal Competitiveness Enhancement Fund (AnCEF), which helps finance the DA’s repopulation programs.

For now, the country remains heavily reliant on foreign pork to plug the supply deficit.

According to the BAI, the Philippines imported 541,405 MT of pork products from January to July, a 10 percent increase from the 490,825 MT brought in over the same period last year.