The country’s coconut production this year is expected to exceed 15 million metric tons (MT) for the first time in 13 years amid rising export demand, according to the Philippine Coconut Authority (PCA).

“We hope that we’ll be able to improve by at least five percent of the production [last year],” PCA Administrator and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Dexter Buted said on Wednesday, Aug. 26, when asked about his production outlook for the year.

Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) data showed that the country’s coconut production reached 14.51 million MT last year, a slight increase from the 14.5 million MT recorded in 2024.

If production increases by five percent this year, coconut production would reach an estimated 15.24 million MT.

This would be the first time that production of the tropical crop would reach and exceed the 15-million-MT mark since 2013, when the country produced 15.35 million MT of coconuts.

Buted is banking on PCA’s coconut fertilization program, which seeks to improve the productivity of existing coconut farms and restore damaged trees.

He also said that coconut trees planted around six years ago are now bearing fruit, further increasing the country’s output.

“Of course, there is an increase in the export commodity and we are expecting an increase also in the production,” said Buted.

The latest PSA data showed that coconut exports from January to June rose by 12 percent to $1.9 billion from $1.69 billion in the same period last year.

Coconut oil exports, which account for 82 percent of the value, grew by more than 10 percent to $1.56 billion by the end of June from $1.41 billion a year ago.

Last year, the country’s coconut exports amounted to $3.6 billion, up by 35 percent from $2.7 billion in 2024, PSA data showed.

To further support increased demand, Buted said PCA intends to plant at least 25.3 million coconut trees within the year.

He said this keeps the agency on track to reach its target of planting 100 million coconut trees by 2028, having planted 60 million trees since 2024, including this year.

Still, PCA is aiming to plant around 15 percent more trees until 2028, given that the survival rate of coconut trees is around 85 percent due to the country’s weather conditions.

“So we plan to plant about 15 to 20 million in a buffer so that we can target the dead coconut trees and replace them, so it will still be 100 million bearing fruits in the near future,” said Buted.

Buted said production this year will likely be shielded from the impact of an extreme El Niño in the fourth quarter of the year, since output from Mindanao is expected to be unharmed.

Citing weather projections, he noted that the adverse weather phenomenon will likely only affect Luzon and Visayas, leaving Mindanao, which accounts for more than 50 percent of the country’s total output, unscathed.