Manila Bulletin
Philippines
National
OCD warns 'Saudel' may worsen 'habagat' impacts as 7.5 million individuals already affected
Philippines
National
OCD warns 'Saudel' may worsen 'habagat' impacts as 7.5 million individuals already affected
OCD warns 'Saudel' may worsen 'habagat' impacts as 7.5 million individuals already affected
Published Aug 24, 2026 01:18 pm
At A Glance
- Typhoon "Saudel" (international name) could strengthen the southwest monsoon and bring prolonged, heavy rains to western and northern Luzon, including Metro Manila, from Monday or Tuesday through Thursday or Friday, according to the Office of Civil Defense (OCD).
- Meanwhile, the combined effects of habagat and Tropical Cyclones Luis, Maymay, and Neneng have since affected 2.2 million families or about 7.5 million people, with 29 deaths and 19 injuries reported.
- The OCD warned of renewed flooding, landslides, rising river and dam levels, and disruptions to transport and agriculture as authorities prepare for Saudel's possible impact.
Office of Civil Defense (OCD) personnel monitor weather conditions and the projected track of Typhoon “Saudel” (international name) at the agency’s operations center in Camp Aguinaldo, Quezon City on Aug. 23, 2026 as authorities prepare for its possible entry into the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and its potential to enhance the southwest monsoon (habagat). It will be given the local name "Obet" once it enters PAR. (Photo: OCD)
The country is bracing for another round of prolonged rains as a new tropical cyclone could further aggravate conditions in areas still reeling from weeks of monsoon rains that have already left 29 people dead and affected 7.5 million others.
Office of Civil Defense (OCD) Deputy Administrator for Operations, Assistant Secretary Bernardo Rafaelito Alejandro IV, said the agency is closely monitoring the possible interaction between (international name) Typhoon “Saudel” and the southwest monsoon (habagat), which could bring more rain to western and northern Luzon, including the National Capital Region (NCR).
As of Monday, Aug. 24, the latest OCD data showed that the combined effects of enhanced habagat and Tropical Cyclones Luis, Maymay, and Neneng have already affected 2.2 million families or about 7.5 million people in 10 regions.
“The overall situation that could affect us is that the habagat is expected to remain active. It could be enhanced or intensified because there is a storm approaching,” Alejandro said.
As of writing, Saudel was still outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and Alejandro said it could be given the local name “Obet” once it enters PAR.
He said the enhanced monsoon could begin affecting the country as early as Monday or Tuesday, Aug. 25, and bring prolonged and rapidly intensifying rainfall to areas that have already received heavy rains in recent weeks.
“If you remember, it rained continuously last week because of the monsoon. These are the same areas that could be hit by the habagat,” he said.
Alejandro said those areas are already saturated, raising the risk of renewed flooding and landslides. He also warned of possible disruptions to critical lifelines, including transportation.
Meanwhile, President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. led a meeting at the Pampanga Provincial Capitol on the effects of the habagat and previous cyclones and the preparations of government agencies for areas that could be hit by enhanced monsoon rains.
OCD Administrator Undersecretary Harold N. Cabreros and Deputy Administrator for Operations Assistant Secretary Laurena Mina attended the presidential meeting with other members of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC).
Likely scenarios
According to Alejandro, the OCD is considering two possible scenarios as Saudel approaches.
Under the first scenario, the cyclone would enhance the southwest monsoon and produce light to moderate or moderate to heavy rainfall from Monday through Thursday or Friday.
“The likely impact would be prolonged rainfall, flooding, and landslides. River levels could rise and water could possibly be released from dams,” Alejandro said.
Such conditions could disrupt transportation services and further hurt agriculture because of excessive rainfall and waterlogging, he added.
The second scenario involves a change in Saudel’s projected track that could bring the cyclone farther south and closer to Taiwan instead of its earlier projected path toward Japan.
“If the track goes farther south, beyond the NCR, there could be an interaction between the habagat and the storm. Again, this could enhance the rainfall that may be brought over western and northern Luzon,” Alejandro said.
He said the second scenario would also raise the possibility of strong winds and rough seas while worsening the risks of flooding, landslides, and other hazards.
Preparations for Saudel
The OCD conducted a Pre-Disaster Risk Assessment (PDRA) on Sunday, Aug. 23, with government agencies, local governments, and science agencies, including the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) and the Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB).
The assessment covered the expected weather conditions, possible hazards, and preparations needed in areas likely to be affected.
Alejandro said the agency was coordinating with its regional offices, national government agencies, and local governments to ensure that response teams, equipment, food and non-food items are ready for deployment.
The OCD said its central and regional offices were also continuing response operations for the effects of previous cyclones and habagat while preparing for the possible combined effects of Saudel and habagat.
Water replenishment
However, Alejandro said the incoming rains could also have a positive effect by replenishing dams and reservoirs, although authorities would have to closely manage any excess water.
“The rainfall will bring water that could raise the levels of our dams or reservoirs. This is an opportunity for us to have water resource recovery, but of course, we will monitor this because it might also lead to the down streaming of excess water. That is why we need to closely watch our flood management,” he said.
Over 33,000 individuals still in evacuation centers; 102 areas under a state of calamity
The prolonged rains have since affected 418 evacuation centers where 9,858 families or 33,358 people were still staying. Some 2,500 houses were damaged, including 285 that were totally destroyed.
Infrastructure losses have reached P5.1 billion while agricultural damage stood at P1.7 billion. Meanwhile, government assistance provided to affected communities has reached P1.31 billion.
The government has also declared 102 cities and municipalities under a state of calamity, including areas in Pangasinan, Benguet, Bataan, Bulacan, Pampanga, Zambales, Rizal, Cavite, Batangas and Occidental Mindoro.
The OCD urged residents in low-lying and landslide-prone areas to remain alert and follow government advisories.
People in coastal communities and those planning to travel were also advised to avoid sailing or making trips when weather conditions deteriorate.