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Manila Bulletin devider Business devider The Economy devider Fuel prices loom higher as geopolitical conflicts drag on

Fuel prices loom higher as geopolitical conflicts drag on

Published Aug 21, 2026 10:12 am
A motorcycle rider refuels at a station in Quezon City on Tuesday, April 21, following a significant rollback in fuel prices. Oil companies implemented a major price cut this week, ₱24.94 per liter decrease for diesel, while gasoline and kerosene prices were slashed by ₱3.41 and ₱2.00, respectively. (Photo by Santi San Juan I MB)
A motorcycle rider refuels at a station in Quezon City on Tuesday, April 21, following a significant rollback in fuel prices. Oil companies implemented a major price cut this week, ₱24.94 per liter decrease for diesel, while gasoline and kerosene prices were slashed by ₱3.41 and ₱2.00, respectively. (Photo by Santi San Juan I MB)
Renewed geopolitical tensions this week threaten to drive oil prices higher next week.
Based on four-day trading averages for the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) and foreign exchange rates, local diesel prices could climb by ₱1.75 to ₱2.25 per liter, while gasoline could spike by ₱1.00 to ₱1.50 per liter.
The Department of Energy (DOE) will announce the final price adjustments for oil companies on Monday, Aug. 24.
Escalating tensions between the US and Iran, alongside blocked shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, are restricting Middle Eastern supply, a market expert noted on Friday, Aug. 21.
“Oil prices climbed due to a rebuild in the geopolitical premium as prospects for a diplomatic solution to the US-Iran conflict and normalization of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz have dimmed,” the source said.
In addition, ongoing attacks on Russian refineries and supply lines are tightening global fuel availability even further. According to the expert, disruptions to Black Sea shipping have raised doubts about whether replacement sour crude can reliably offset reduced Middle Eastern supplies. Even with higher exports from Asia, low oil inventories continue to push prices upward.
“Sustaining the strength of diesel are the still-fragile physical balances, despite improving replacement supply from continued acceleration of outflows from China, as concerns remain over low inventories, reduced Middle Eastern availability through the Strait of Hormuz, and constrained exports from Russia,” the source explained.

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