As national elections approach, a continuous stream of public opinion polls seeks to gauge voter sentiment—especially regarding the race for the presidency. Among these, WR Numero’s June 2026 Philippine Public Opinion Monitor (PPOM) stands out as a trusted benchmark. Based on a nationally representative survey of 1,500 Filipino adults across diverse social classes, generations, and regions, the study provides valuable insights into the attitudes, behaviors, and preferences shaping political decision-making.

Data indicate that Vice President Sara Duterte remains a dominant force in Philippine politics, and is strongly positioned to secure the presidency in 2028. In terms of factional partisanship, 37 percent identified themselves as supporters of Duterte and her allies, compared to 18 percent for the Marcos camp and 20 percent for the Opposition (e.g., Leni Robredo and allies). Duterte’s support has remained virtually unchanged since March 2025 (38 percent). Her core support is validated by a 55 percent positive assessment of her performance as vice president. Thus, at the time of the survey, she has a commanding pre-election lead for the presidency at 39.4 percent —nearly double her nearest rival, Leni Robredo (20.9 percent). Even a combined vote share of Robredo and third-place contender Raffy Tulfo (14.2 percent) would not surpass Duterte's base. Furthermore, fourth-place contender Bong Go (3.6 percent) is likely to consolidate his votes behind Duterte.

Voter preferences for Vice President support these numbers. The top two VP choices are both Duterte allies: Robin Padilla (21.3 percent) and Bong Go (20.6 percent), whose ratings grew by 9.6 percent and 8.4 percent since March 2025, respectively.

Similarly, the survey results in the senatorial race validate the support for Sara Duterte. According to the WR Numero data, six of the top eight senators rated for good performance are Duterte allies: Alan Peter Cayetano (24 percent), Robin Padilla (23 percent), Bong Go (19 percent), Rodante Marcoleta (16 percent), Pia Cayetano (14 percent), and Bato dela Rosa (13 percent). And if elections are held today, Duterte allies dominate the top ten, led by Robin Padilla (#1 at 39 percent), Alan Peter Cayetano (34 percent), Loren Legarda (32 percent), Sebastian “Baste” Duterte (29 percent), and Paolo “Pulong” Duterte (28 percent).

As regards the public’s perception of the ongoing impeachment process against the Vice President, 54 percent oppose her impeachment, and 42 percent believe that evidence against her is weak.

Though Duterte holds a clear advantage, viable counter-strategies exist for opposing factions. It may seem simplistic but the math for an anti-Duterte coalition can be a possibility if political strategy is designed to achieve that objective. Combining the Opposition base (20 percent) and the Marcos faction (18 percent) creates a combined 38 percent, which can challenge the Duterte machinery if unified with some of the undecided population (24 percent).

In a head-to-head scenario between Duterte and Robredo according to PPOM, the former leads 50 percent to 40 percent. A 10-point gap remains winnable for Robredo if she decides to run and successfully siphons undecided voters (10 percent) and anti-Duterte blocs. Analyzing the demographics, Robredo leads in Metro Manila (49.59 percent vs. 41.42 percent) and Rest of Luzon (55.33 percent vs. 27.81 percent) while Duterte dominates Mindanao overwhelmingly (95.04 percent) and Visayas (56.19 percent vs. 38.56 percent). In terms of socioeconomic class: Robredo leads in Class ABC (49.94 percent vs. 42.67 percent), whereas Duterte leads in Class D (57.13 percent vs. 36.05 percent) and Class E (49.01 percent vs.39.28 percent). These data provide the Robredo team valuable inputs in designing her campaign strategy should she decide to run for the presidency. Getting the active support of two senators who enjoy strong net positive standings in terms of performance in the Senate, Senators Raffy Tulfo (#1 good performer at 25 percent) and Bam Aquino (#4 good performer at 22 percent), would definitely boost Robredo’s chance.

What about the Marcos factor? Despite holding the top executive power for the past years, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. faces weak voter allegiance and declining approval numbers. Only 18 percent of survey respondents align with the Marcos camp, placing him behind both the Duterte faction (37 percent) and the Opposition (20 percent). Marcos also trails Duterte sharply in satisfaction, recording a 36 percent approval rating against Duterte's 55 percent, while his dissatisfaction stands at 55 percent compared to Duterte's 35 percent. Given these numbers, forming a strong alliance with Robredo and other anti-Duterte forces appears to be a necessary strategic move for Marcos to secure his political future.

It’s not solely a numbers game definitely, but numbers can suggest what to do now to achieve a desired outcome.