The Philippines will need to nearly quadruple its installed power capacity to 121.3 gigawatts (GW) by 2040 to satisfy surging electricity demand while meeting its ambitious 50 percent renewable energy (RE) target, according to the Department of Energy (DOE).

Speaking at a post-SONA media briefing on Tuesday, Aug. 11, Energy Secretary Sharon Garin explained that agency simulations factor in ongoing RE projects to arrive at the 121.3 GW diversified power mix requirement. The country currently has about 32.2 GW of installed capacity.

“Our simulations reinforce an important point: energy planning cannot simply be about adding megawatts. We must know whether that capacity will be available when the system needs it, whether the grid can accommodate it, and whether the system can withstand growing demand, plant outages and increasing renewable energy,” Garin said.

To achieve this 276 percent capacity expansion, Garin urged greater energy investments nationwide, including 24 GW of new ground-mounted solar, 20 GW of new gas, and nearly 10 GW of new onshore wind projects.

“The timely completion of projects already committed and awarded can significantly reduce how much additional capacity we will need to build. If these projects, including offshore wind and waste-to-energy, come online as planned, the requirement for new gas falls to about 13 gigawatts and new ground-mounted solar to about 14 gigawatts by 2040,” the DOE chief elaborated.

The DOE has also factored in a projected 1.4 GW of nuclear capacity by 2038. Based on its latest studies, the agency has narrowed its list of potential sites to three or four locations, with Palawan, Bataan, and Pangasinan remaining under consideration.

However, Garin clarified that nuclear power will complement rather than replace other energy sources, underscoring the need to maintain a balanced energy mix.