This will be a data-driven week for the stock market as investors look ahead to Philippine inflation and gross domestic product (GDP) figures, United States (US) production and employment data, as well as more first-half corporate earnings reports.

“Higher-than-expected July inflation might support the case for possible rate hike from the local central bank. A lower-than-expected 2026 GDP could lead to tempered portfolio exposure in equities,” said online brokerage 2TradeAsia.com.

The firm said July inflation and second-quarter 2026 GDP data could influence the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) policy path, as regional central banks are expected to match the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move on interest rates.

“Futures are now leaning toward a hike by September, pressured by oil keeping CPI [consumer price index] too sticky for the Fed to even entertain easing, and that same dynamic is what is driving the region. We thus expect yields to stay firm, the peso to hold up reasonably well because the BSP is matching the Fed’s hawkishness, and risk sentiment to stay choppy through August on rate-path uncertainty alone,” it added.

Meanwhile, the country’s fiscal position also bears watching as proposals to increase the income tax exemption threshold and exempt small businesses from the minimum corporate income tax come at a time when the budget deficit has already reached ₱800 billion.

“We think this combination raises sovereign debt supply risk over time, which tends to translate into upward pressure on benchmark yields and some multiple compression for equities, even if the tax relief itself is popular and positive for household consumption,” 2TradeAsia.com said.

Given the fiscal overhang, the brokerage advised investors to focus on defensive stocks and favor quality banks that stand to benefit from a BSP that keeps interest rates higher for longer.

This week, International Container Terminal Services Inc. (ICTSI), Maynilad Water Services Inc. (Maynilad), Semirara Mining and Power Corp. (SMPC), Universal Robina Corp. (URC), China Banking Corp. (Chinabank), and DMCI Holdings Inc. are scheduled to release their first-half results.

Meanwhile, Abacus Securities Corp. reiterated its “buy on weakness” recommendation for SP New Energy Corp. (SPNEC), saying its Terra Solar project is expected to begin commercial operations in September or October, when it can charge higher rates than during the current commissioning phase.

Production has ramped up to 151 gigawatt-hours (GWh) since late March, and operations are expected to continue ramping up through 2027.