While stock analysts expect Maynilad Water Services Inc. to be a shoo-in for the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) next month, the bourse’s revamped criteria for index inclusion are expected to make Aboitiz Power Corp. (AboitizPower) and Synergy Grid & Development Philippines Inc. (SGP) eligible for the benchmark index by February next year.

Both Abacus Securities Corp. and COL Financial Group Inc. expect Maynilad to replace Converge ICT Solutions Inc. in the PSEi by August because Maynilad’s market capitalization is roughly double that of Converge.

Abacus noted that, “Next year’s exercise is likely to bring about more changes… AP would qualify under the new exception to the 20-percent free float rule, which allows for a stock to enter the index as long as its free float is at least 15 percent and market cap is at least ₱250 billion.”

COL research analyst Paolo Miguel Manansala said AboitizPower also emerges as a potential inclusion candidate following the easing of the free float requirement, which could result in DigiPlus Interactive Corp. (PLUS) being removed as the lowest-ranked PSEi constituent.

Abacus also said PLUS is at risk of being deleted, as its volume-weighted average price (VWAP) market capitalization would no longer be pulled upward by the higher price levels the stock recorded in 2025, likely causing it to fall below the threshold for remaining in the index.

“However, AP would still need to satisfy the new liquidity criterion. Based on our estimates, it would need to record an average monthly median value turnover of about ₱36.5 million over the remainder of the year, slightly above its average monthly median turnover of ₱34.4 million in the January-to-June period,” COL said.

Both Abacus and COL also believe SGP has a good chance of entering the PSEi if it can at least maintain its current share price. It is expected to replace China Banking Corp. (Chinabank), which fails to meet the liquidity requirement, or median trading activity ratio.

“The new stricter liquidity rules still put CBC, Aboitiz Equity Ventures Inc. (AEV), and San Miguel Corp. (SMC) in danger of failing this requirement, although since the implementation of the new rules won’t be until February, they have until the end of December to increase liquidity and avoid deletion,” Abacus said.

It noted that AEV and SMC have a better chance of achieving this than Chinabank. As a result, two spots are likely to be vacated by DigiPlus and Chinbank, to be filled by AboitizPower and SGP.

“Any additional spots freed would be taken up by the next highest-ranked non-index member by VWAP market cap, which is Manila Water Co. Inc. (MWC), then Philippine National Bank (PNB). However, since there are still more than five months of trading left in the reference period for the February rebalancing, the two next possible replacements could still change,” Abacus added.

Meanwhile, Mynt (GCash) will still need to increase its public float, despite the lower 15-percent requirement, to qualify for the PSEi rebalancing by August 2027 after satisfying the six-month listing requirement, as its current initial public offering (IPO) prospectus estimates its public float at between 12 percent and 13.8 percent upon listing.

“But, for the August rebalancing, Mynt has until the end of June to increase its free float to at least 15 percent. This would be beyond the 180-day lock-up for majority shareholders, which increases the chances of Mynt being able to reach that threshold. However, at the current offer price, this three-percent increase is still quite a large float value, of which the ability of the market to absorb remains to be seen,” Abacus said.

Assuming Mynt (GCash) satisfies this requirement, Manansala said Semirara Mining and Power Corp. (SMPC) is the next PSEi constituent at risk of removal during the August 2027 rebalancing.

“Index inclusion and exclusion expectations are known to create trading opportunities leading up to and on the effectivity date of rebalancing changes. If a stock is expected to be included into the index, investors may look to position in the stock before its share price rises significantly,” he explained.

Manansala added that, “Conversely, investors may consider lightening or avoiding stocks facing exclusion due to the potential selling pressure.”