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Manila Bulletin devider Business devider The Economy devider Big-time oil price hike next week: Diesel up by around ₱10, gasoline up over ₱3

Big-time oil price hike next week: Diesel up by around ₱10, gasoline up over ₱3

Published Jul 17, 2026 09:29 am
Motorists are bracing for another steep increase in oil prices next week due to intensifying geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and tightening global supply of refined oil products.
Based on the four-day trading average of the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) and foreign exchange rates, local diesel prices are projected to rise by ₱9.50 to ₱10.50 per liter. Gasoline is also expected to increase, with forecasts pointing to an upward adjustment of ₱3.50 to ₱4.50 per liter.
The primary catalyst for the looming surge is escalating shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz as tensions heightened following Iranian attacks on commercial vessels moving outside approved maritime routes, which prompted retaliatory military strikes from the United States.
Analysts warned that a prolonged blockade or persistent disruptions in the waterway will continue to constrict product distribution and sustain high geopolitical risk premiums.
The impact on diesel is further compounded by the structural squeeze in middle distillates. Regional demand is entering a peak seasonal phase just as global supplies shrink. Additionally, Russian diesel exports have declined following infrastructure damage from Ukrainian drone strikes on major refining hubs, further stressing the global energy market.
Gasoline markets are feeling a similar pressure from the Middle East standoff. Concerns over the reliable flow of raw crude feedstocks and refined products during the peak Northern Hemisphere summer travel season are keeping benchmark prices elevated. The unstable environment around the Strait of Hormuz has essentially eliminated any near-term buffer for fuel importers.
In response to the volatile price forecasts, the Department of Energy is closely monitoring domestic pricing practices.
While the agency has not confirmed whether it will revive emergency oil procurement strategies deployed earlier this year, officials plan to convene oil companies to establish a unified base for next week’s adjustments. The intervention aims to address compliance challenges among smaller retail fuel companies struggling to align their retail prices with the government’s prescribed ranges.

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