The revenue of the country’s information technology and business process management (IT-BPM) sector is expected to reach $50.5 billion by 2028, down 14 percent from its original target amid stronger competition and the increased adoption of artificial intelligence (AI).

Based on the revised forecast of the IT and Business Process Association of the Philippines (IBPAP), the new best-case scenario target for 2028 is about $8.4 billion lower than its previous target of $58.9 billion.

In terms of workforce, IBPAP aims to employ 2.14 million digital workers by 2028 under the best-case scenario, down 14 percent from its initial goal of 2.5 million employees.

The industry group has also set a worst-case scenario target of $43.3 billion in revenues and 1.85 million workers for the same year.

The original targets were set in IBPAP’s 2022 roadmap and were revised following a review to account for ongoing uncertainties surrounding the IT-BPM sector.

“The roadmap refresh was really an opportunity to take a more honest look at what conditions have changed, what has not changed, but most important, what we need to do next,” IBPAP president and chief executive officer (CEO) Jack Madrid told a press briefing on Tuesday, July 14.

IBPAP considered the impact of the growing integration of AI, geopolitical upheavals, and other developments in revising its targets to better reflect the industry’s growth trajectory, he said.

“All the macroeconomics, all the geopolitics happened, which caused many of our buyers and investors not to stop, but it made them make their decisions slower on where to make the investments,” Madrid said.

“The other thing that changed is that it’s not just India and the Philippines anymore. There are emerging third-layer IT-BPM destinations that are trying to capture a share [of the market],” he added.

Madrid said the IT-BPM industry aims to reach the upper end of its 2028 targets, which he said will require the sector to respond effectively to evolving needs.

“Success will depend on how quickly we invest in talent, embrace AI responsibly, and deepen collaboration between industry, government, and academe,” he said.

To achieve these targets, IBPAP said it is pushing the sector to transform workers into digitally enabled professionals, meaning they have mastery of AI without losing the iconic Filipino quality of service.

For its part, IBPAP said it has been working with government agencies to equip workers with the capabilities needed to thrive in an AI-enabled workplace, including through Project UNLAD.

Even with gaps in the sector’s AI adoption, the industry group said the country continues to attract clients in higher-value work such as analytics, engineering, finance, healthcare information management (HIM), and digital services.

IBPAP chief operating officer (COO) Celeste Ilagan said the industry group is also working with the government to help improve the ease of doing business in the country.

Meanwhile, Ilagan said insider cybercrime and other fraudulent activities are becoming major concerns for the sector, which could undermine investor confidence if left unchecked.

“The reputation of the Philippines is at stake and therefore, the solution to the problem should also be in the scale at which this problem is coming to us,” she said.

Madrid said global capability centers (GCCs), or the offshore units of multinational corporations (MNCs), are expected to drive the industry’s growth through 2028.

At present, there are around 200 GCCs operating in the country. IBPAP is optimistic that the country will add up to 30 of these firms per year.

Healthcare, banking and financial services, and emerging markets (EMs) are also expected to help the IT-BPM sector achieve growth in the near term.

For 2026, the IT-BPM sector’s revenue is expected to reach $42.3 billion, while employment is projected to reach 1.95 million.