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Manila Bulletin devider Business devider Trade & Industry devider Diesel braced for big-time oil price jump

Diesel braced for big-time oil price jump

Published Jul 11, 2026 09:05 am  |  Updated Jul 11, 2026 07:57 pm
Brace yourselves for a steep increase in fuel expenses next week as the squeeze on global middle distillate inventories and renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East threaten to push domestic diesel prices up by nearly ₱5 per liter.
Based on the full-week trading averages of the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) alongside foreign exchange movements, domestic diesel prices are projected to climb by ₱2.50 to ₱4.50 per liter.
The final scale of the price adjustments will be officially determined and announced by the Department of Energy on Monday, July 13, ahead of the customary weekly implementation by retail oil companies on Tuesday morning.
The primary catalyst behind the looming diesel spike is the contraction in global middle distillate inventories, a key category of refined petroleum products that includes diesel, heating oil, and jet fuel.
Stronger-than-expected global demand has outpaced current regional refining output, rapidly draining stockpiles and driving up benchmark trading prices in Singapore, which serves as the pricing basis for oil imports in Southeast Asia.
Compounding the inventory squeeze are revived geopolitical risks in the Middle East. An industry source noted that the resumption of hostilities in the region has renewed fears of a severe physical supply disruption.
Specifically, navigation through the crucial Strait of Hormuz trade bottleneck is facing renewed threats, exposing the fragility of the maritime energy corridor and highlighting the limitations of diplomatic agreements between the United States and Iran.
In contrast to the clear upward trajectory for diesel, the outlook for gasoline-based motorists remains highly volatile. Depending on how final trading sessions settle, domestic gasoline prices could either fall by up to ₱1.25 per liter or increase by as much as ₱0.75 per liter.
Should the projected increases materialize, next week's adjustments will mark the second consecutive round of fuel price hikes in July.

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