Investors in the local stock market will be watching out for the Philippines’ June inflation numbers to be released this week, while also keeping an eye on continuing developments in the Middle East between the United States (US) and Iran.

“The local market exhibited positive momentum as global oil prices declined while the Philippine economy achieved higher income status from the World Bank. However, trading was thin reflecting tepid market confidence as uncertainties remain,” said Philstocks Financial Inc. research manager Japhet Tantiangco.

He noted, “The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) projects inflation to settle within six to seven percent. Meanwhile, Philstocks estimates inflation to come in at 6.5 percent. If inflation exhibits a decline from the prior month’s 6.8 percent, we may see a positive reaction from the local bourse.”

F. Yap Securities Inc. said, “Expectations of tamer consumer prices in June will support follow-through buying. A June print below May’s 6.8 percent should help the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) sustain its short-term push towards 6,200 to 6,400.”

The brokerage said its in-house estimate points closer to six percent, still above the two- to four-percent target for the year, but matching the economic managers’ revised forecasts of six to seven percent this year.

“We view the staggered implementation of the recently approved National Capital Region (NCR) wage hike as not materially impactful, although upcoming regional wage reviews [are] worth assessing,” it added.

Meanwhile, Tantiangco said that while the situation between the US and Iran is seemingly subdued and has calmed oil prices, no permanent resolution has been established between the two countries, so uncertainties remain.

“While the market’s attractive level coupled with the recent positive developments and upward momentum entices bargain hunting, investors are still advised to maintain caution as downside risks remain,” he added.

For its part, F. Yap Securities is advising investors to look toward mining plays as US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh’s less-hawkish bias is starting to support demand for gold and other base metals, as asset reallocation is supported.

Also, “With the onset of first-half corporate earnings releases, local banks are seen to be the preferred core-plus pay, with earnings anchored on robust net interest margins (NIMs) and write-backs of conservative provisions.”

However, it noted that some investors might opt to maintain elevated cash buffers, especially with the upcoming listings of Mynt and Vitro.

For a specific stock pick, RCBC Securities Inc. has upgraded its rating for Aboitiz-led Union Bank of the Philippines (UnionBank) to BUY from HOLD after the stock price dropped 14 percent in less than two months, resulting in a higher potential return, including dividend yield.

It also noted that the bank’s 167-percent net income growth in the first quarter of 2026 is the fastest among its peers and exceeded the brokerage’s expectations.

“We expect UBP’s earnings momentum to continue, with proactive measures being undertaken as it reinforces its portfolio,” RCBC Securities added.