The newly announced peace agreement between the United States and Iran offers a rare and welcome pause in one of the world’s most persistent geopolitical tensions. For decades, the relationship between these two nations—with Israel looming in the background—has shaped global energy markets, influenced regional stability in the Middle East, and periodically rattled investor confidence worldwide. This latest development, while fragile and with details still scarce, signals an opportunity not only for the immediate parties involved but also for economies far beyond the negotiating table—including the Philippines.

For the global economy, the most immediate impact of de-escalation is stability in oil prices. The Middle East remains a critical artery of global energy supply, and any reduction in conflict risk will certainly calm markets. And while some analysts predict that it will take a long time before things go back to normal, lower and more predictable oil prices can ease inflationary pressures, reduce transportation costs, and support industrial growth across both developed and emerging economies. Financial markets, which are highly sensitive to geopolitical uncertainty, also stand to benefit from improved investor confidence.

For us in the Philippines, an import-dependent economy when it comes to fuel, this development is particularly significant. Lower energy costs can translate into reduced electricity prices, more stable food supply chains, and less pressure on household expenses. Inflation—one of the country’s most persistent economic challenges—could moderate, providing relief to consumers and allowing the central bank greater flexibility in managing interest rates. The country’s inflation rate slightly eased to 6.8 percent in May from 7.2 percent in April but remains one of the highest inflation rates in recent years.

It is my view, however, that it would be a mistake to treat this peace as permanent or irreversible. While I share the optimism expressed in the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) statement hoping that the agreement “will finally lead to the permanent cessation of hostilities and contribute to a just and durable peace,” I also know that the history of US-Iran relations is marked by cycles of negotiation and breakdown, with underlying tensions rooted in ideology, security concerns, and regional influence. In my experience as a Senator and specifically as chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, I understand that any agreement reached today remains vulnerable to political shifts, leadership changes, or unforeseen incidents that could quickly reignite hostilities.

At the same time, the Philippines cannot afford to focus solely on distant conflicts while overlooking tensions closer to home. The South China Sea remains a persistent flashpoint, with overlapping territorial claims involving China and several Southeast Asian nations, including the Philippines. Maritime incidents, military posturing, and legal disputes continue to test regional stability. Even in the absence of open conflict, these tensions carry real economic risks—from disrupted trade routes to weakened investor confidence.

This volatility is precisely why the Philippines must treat this moment not as an ending, but as a strategic window. As the old adage reminds us, “the best time to prepare for war is during peace time.” In practical terms—as I have mentioned in previous columns—this means strengthening energy security by diversifying sources and investing in renewables, reducing over reliance on imported fuel. It also means building economic resilience: Improving food security, reinforcing supply chains, and maintaining fiscal discipline to withstand future shocks.

On the geopolitical front, we should continue to deepen diplomatic ties and participate actively in multilateral forums that promote stability and conflict resolution. At the same time, safeguarding national interests requires maintaining credible defense capabilities and ensuring that the country is not caught unprepared in an increasingly unpredictable global landscape.

Peace, especially in a region as complex as the Middle East, is rarely absolute. It is often provisional, contingent, and fragile. Yet even a temporary easing of tensions carries real economic benefits and strategic opportunities. The challenge for us—and indeed for many nations—is to use this period wisely: To strengthen, to prepare, and to anticipate the uncertainties that history suggests will inevitably return.

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