The country’s tobacco production is expected to remain unchanged from last year’s output of more than 51 million kilos as farmers scale down their planting amid an overproduction of tobacco, according to the National Tobacco Administration (NTA).

NTA Administrator and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Belinda Sanchez said this year’s tobacco harvest would “more or less” be the same as last year following an oversupply of around five million kilos of flue-cured Virginia (FCV) tobacco for this year’s season.

The NTA attributed the overproduction to a surge in planting as farmers anticipated that the strong demand seen last year would continue, but this did not come to fruition as global supply also remained abundant.

Citing market projections, NTA deputy administrator Nestor Casela said the agency expects the overproduction of FCV tobacco leaves to persist for another two to three years.

The country’s tobacco output reached 51.61 million kilos last year, an increase of more than 13 percent from the 45.4 million kilos recorded in 2024.

Based on NTA data, the harvest of FCV tobacco expanded by nearly a quarter to 20.94 million kilos last year from 16.79 million kilos in the previous year.

Burley tobacco production rose by 16 percent to 8.86 million kilos, while native tobacco posted a four-percent hike to 21.81 million kilos.

The country’s tobacco production area stood at 28,411 hectares last year, up by 9.6 percent from 25,926 hectares in 2024.

According to the NTA, the number of tobacco farmers in the country increased by 17 percent to 50,422 from 43,098, adding more than 7,000 farmers to the sector.

Casela said production this year would remain stable despite the looming threat of El Niño, as the NTA is encouraging farmers to plant early to minimize the potential damage from the weather phenomenon.

While tobacco is relatively resilient to drought, Philippine Tobacco Growers Association (PTGA) President Saturnino Distor said it may affect the quality of tobacco leaves.

“For [FCV], the color changes. But as far as burley is concerned, it won't affect the quality, but maybe the size,” he told reporters.

Meanwhile, Sanchez warned that the country’s tobacco production may decline unless the government steps in to curb the spread of illicit tobacco products in the market.

The Philippine Tobacco Institute (PTI) estimates that illicit tobacco and vape products cost the government an estimated ₱141 billion in foregone revenue from 2024 to 2025.

“The stolen capital represents funds that were specifically earmarked for national infrastructure, universal healthcare, and vital development projects,” said PTI president Bayen Elero-Tinga

She said illegal cigarettes account for more than a quarter of the domestic market, while unregulated vape products hold an even larger 85 percent share of their market.