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Manila Bulletin devider Business devider The Economy devider Big-time oil price drop locked in as global markets cool down

Big-time oil price drop locked in as global markets cool down

Published Jun 19, 2026 10:47 am  |  Updated Jun 19, 2026 01:39 pm
Motorists are on track for major relief at the pumps next week, with diesel prices poised to plunge by up to ₱9.5 per liter and gasoline by up to ₱5.00 per liter as global oil markets cool down.
Based on the four-day trading average of the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS), the regional benchmark, local energy retailers are tracking a steep price cut for diesel of between ₱7.5 and ₱9.5 per liter.
Gasoline prices are similarly projected to drop by ₱3 to ₱5 per liter.
Catalyst for the market correction was driven by the landmark 14-point memorandum of understanding signed digitally by US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
The interim accord establishes a 60-day window for both nations to negotiate a permanent settlement, triggering an immediate, toll-free resumption of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz choking point and the temporary waiver of heavy US sanctions on Iranian crude exports.
The cooling of geopolitical risk has been reinforced by structural improvements in the Asian refining sector. To insulate against recent Middle Eastern disruptions, regional refiners successfully locked in alternative crude feedstocks.
An analyst said this diversification has accelerated the availability of replacement flows, suppressing localized market tightness for middle distillates and allowing refined product output to remain resilient.
Compounding the supply recovery, regional product availability has also expanded as several major Asian refineries finalized their scheduled seasonal turnaround and maintenance cycles, restoring full production capacity.
On the domestic front, local retail prices have captured an additional cushion from the strengthening peso, which recent appreciation against the US dollar lowered the landed cost of imported refined petroleum products.
While the Department of Energy (DOE) estimated that returning domestic pump prices to pre-crisis levels of ₱50 to ₱60 per liter could take an additional six to twelve months, market participants expect the immediate 60-day compliance window to lock in a prolonged stretch of downward pricing pressure.

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