The country’s production of palay, or unmilled rice, likely improved by 5.3 percent in the second quarter as the total harvest area expanded to more than one million hectares, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

Based on estimates by the PSA as of May 1, palay output from April to June may have reached 4.61 million metric tons (MT), higher than the actual harvest of 4.38 million MT in the same period last year.

However, the latest production estimate is 0.8 percent lower than the PSA’s initial forecast of 4.65 million MT as of April 1. The decline was attributed to the marginal drop in palay yield per hectare to 4.48 MT from 4.50 MT the previous year.

Despite this, the PSA said the estimated harvest area based on standing crop may have increased by 5.7 percent to 1.03 million hectares from 972,820 hectares last year.

Around 634,910 hectares—or 61.8 percent of the harvest area of standing crops—have already been harvested, resulting in a yield of 2.91 million MT.

Of the remaining unharvested area as of May 1, 44.5 percent was at the maturing stage, 36.9 percent was at the vegetative stage, and 18.6 percent was at the reproductive stage.

“Of the farmers’ planting intentions for April to June 2026 at 864.01 thousand hectares perceived area, 228.70 thousand hectares or 26.5 percent have been actually planted,” the PSA said.

Earlier, the PSA reported that the actual palay harvest in the first quarter declined by 6.4 percent to 4.40 million MT from 4.70 million MT in the same period last year. Combining both figures, the total palay harvest in the first six months may have reached around 9.01 million MT, down 0.8 percent from the actual harvest of 9.08 million MT in the first half of last year.

Rice production this year is expected to slow due to a combination of pressures, including the impact of the conflict in the Middle East and the looming El Niño phenomenon. For El Niño alone, the Department of Agriculture (DA) estimated that its impact on the rice sector may lead to a decline of around 700,000 MT in palay output.

This shortfall means the country will likely miss its full-year production target of 19.87 million MT, which had already been lowered from its initial target of 20.28 million MT. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warned last week that El Niño conditions are now present in the Pacific, placing the probability of the weather event at 80 percent.

To augment the weaker harvest, the country has continued to resort to imports. Based on data from the Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI), the country’s rice imports rose by 18 percent to 1.68 million MT by the end of April from 1.42 million MT in the same period last year.