The Washington-based International Monetary Fund (IMF) said it stands ready to deploy support to the Philippines should it request assistance during the ongoing Middle East war, assuring close engagement with local authorities through surveillance and policy advice.

This remained the IMF’s posture even though the Philippines has been assessed as having a low-risk sovereign profile.

“While the energy shock has significant macroeconomic implications for the Philippines, the latest IMF staff assessment found overall sovereign stress and debt risks to be low, with manageable medium-term solvency and liquidity risks,” the IMF said in a statement sent to the Manila Bulletin.

Meanwhile, the IMF noted it is closely engaging with Philippine monetary and fiscal managers, reiterating that the multilateral lender “stands ready to support members as needed and upon request.”

This vow was not unique to the IMF; other multilateral institutions expressed the same commitment in a separate joint statement. Late last month, the head of the IMF met with the leaders of the International Energy Agency (IEA), World Bank Group (WBG), and World Trade Organization (WTO) to “maximize their institutions’ response to the energy, trade, and economic impacts of the war in the Middle East.”

“We met to take stock of the impacts, discuss the situation in the most affected countries and regions, and coordinate our support to those in need. We also explored options to further enhance collective support through multilateral and bilateral actions,” the IEA, IMF, WBG, and WTO said.

Leaders of these institutions argued that while the overall global economy is treading steadily through the oil crisis, there is a distinct gap in how the shocks are being felt. They noted that the conflict has a far more severe impact on vulnerable countries, especially as fuel and fertilizer costs spike, employment security wavers, and uncertainty rises.

“Higher fertilizer prices are of particular concern as many countries enter the planting season,” the statement read.

Iran’s closure of the strait has led to a rapid depletion of global oil inventories, as a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through the critical waterway.

“If shipping flows do not return to normal, continued rapid depletion of global oil inventories ahead of peak summer oil demand in the Northern Hemisphere would present increasing risks for fuel security, market conditions, and broader economic resilience,” the institutions warned.

Just last Thursday, Iran resolved to fully block the Strait of Hormuz in response to its prolonged exchange of fire with the United States (US). Amid the nearly four-month war, the waterway serves as Iran’s primary geopolitical leverage.

As the war drags on, the IMF, IEA, WBG, and WTO committed to remaining “in close contact and continue coordinating our efforts to support the countries most affected and global economic stability.”

For the Philippines, the global oil crisis poses a severe threat not only to fuel prices but also to the broader economy. Notably, the IMF slashed its growth forecast for the Philippines to 4.1 percent from its previous 5.6 percent estimate in April, citing mounting stagflationary pressures stemming from the US-Iran war.

While the outlook has turned more somber for the Philippines, the IMF highlighted the broader resilience of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

“ASEAN economies have been resilient to recent global shocks, thanks in part to their efforts to build strong macroeconomic buffers in past decades, including strong monetary policy and fiscal frameworks,” the IMF said.

“Growth for the region is projected to remain steady this year, though the energy shock poses important downside risks to the outlook, given that most ASEAN economies are net energy importers,” the lender added.

As a net importer, the Philippines sources nearly all its oil from the Middle East, causing domestic inflation transmission to be swift.

Krishna Srinivasan, director of the IMF’s Asia-Pacific Department, earlier urged the Philippines to exercise fiscal discipline and prioritize targeted spending. This warning comes as the country’s debt ratio is projected to breach a critical threshold this year amid volatile global energy markets.

Based on the latest Fiscal Monitor report, the IMF expects general government debt to hit 60.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026. This marks a deterioration from 59.4 percent in 2025 and signals a thinning of the fiscal buffers that protected the economy during previous downturns.

As of April 2026, the national government’s (NG) debt stock stood at ₱18.47 trillion, easing from the record end-March level of ₱18.49 trillion, even as a weaker peso increased the local value of foreign-currency obligations.