Together with Israel, the US started the war against Iran on Feb. 28. Raining missiles on the country from multiple locations. Many analysts surmise that President Trump thought that the US could replicate what they did in Venezuela, which was to remove the President, and the country would have a regime change. In Iran, the US had a missile strike during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, killing the Ayatollah and several members of his family. Trump probably thought this would encourage an uprising and force regime change. Repeated bombings continued for several days, tragically targeting civilian infrastructure, causing numerous deaths of innocent people, including over 160 children in Minab, where the US bombed twice at a children’s school.

However, something happened. Iran fought back by launching thousands of drones and missiles that took out the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system and rendered several US bases in the Middle East practically useless. The US also lost about 42 military aircrafts during the war. The US has spent billions of dollars, exhausted about half of its missile arsenal (which would take years to replenish), suffered strange accidents in its warships, including its aircraft carriers, which rendered them unable to be used for combat, and deaths of US soldiers. What President Trump thought would be a walk in the park turned out to be a catastrophic disaster. Many policy experts had warned of these dangers, but many of the Middle East experts in the Pentagon had been fired by the Secretary Hegseth.

President Trump had publicly stated that the US government sent firearms to Iran to assist and possibly encourage an uprising. In January, the BBC came out with an article that said the US had actively fueled, leveraged, and at times threatened military action to support anti-government demonstrations. The article stated that the US strategy combined economic pressure, rhetorical support for protesters, and direct military strikes on Iranian infrastructure to press the regime. However, instead of fermenting dissent, the general population rallied behind the regime. Some news reporters had interviewed some Iranians who were traveling to Iran to support the regime in their fight against the US and Israel. The repeated bombings on civilian infrastructure was a crucial mistake that hardened the stance of the Iranians against the US. Numerous Middle East experts had predicted this would happen. However, if you heard the statements of President Trump and other top officials, they seemed blissfully unaware of this possibility, even expressing surprise that Iran had closed the Strait of Hormuz.

However, amid the constant bombings and airstrikes, something happened. Iran fought back and suddenly showed they were in control. Yes, President Trump took to social media daily, sometimes for hours past midnight, claiming the US had won. In fact, Trump claimed the US won, since day one of the war. We’re past day 80 of this war, and Iran is still standing. Not only that. Iran now has effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, causing a massive global economic impact. Iran is now headed by the son of the murdered Ayatollah, who, based on reports, is a hardliner, and the IRGC has a more prominent role in the Iranian government.

At the start of the war, the goal was clear.

1. Preventing Nuclear Capabilities: Denying Iran the ability to develop or acquire a nuclear weapon.

2. Neutralizing Military Assets: Obliterating Iran's ballistic missile programs and neutralizing its naval forces.

3. Disrupting Regional Militias: Countering and curbing Iran-backed armed groups operating across the Middle East.

Now, it looks like the main goal is simply to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and stop Iran from collecting fees from vessels passing. Funny because the same Strait that was open before the war began, and no tolls were collected from vessels passing the Strait.

Some people forget that an agreement was already in place between Iran and the US. The agreement was called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), widely known as the Iran nuclear deal. Finalized in July 2015 by the US, Iran, and other world powers, which was done to verifiably prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. President Trump tore up that agreement when he won. He said it was a terrible deal.

Over the weekend, news reports said that a new agreement was being finalized between the US and Iran. In a nutshell, the proposed terms of the new agreement are WORSE than those of the JCPOA with Obama.

The world is witnessing a senseless and ill-conceived war that was started because President Trump wanted to stop Iran from being able to have a nuclear bomb within two weeks. BTW, some politicians have been saying “Iran is two weeks away from building a nuclear bomb” for over thirty years.

So in summary, the world is going through an economic crisis. The US went through almost half of its missiles in less than a month. Iran’s military capabilities are almost at the same level as before the war started. Iran now has a harder-line President, and the IRGC is more influential. Some experts estimate it will take over 5 years for oil prices to return to pre-war levels. The Strait of Hormuz is under Iranian control. The Petrodollar is in danger of being replaced. Russia has been able to sell its oil at a higher price. The US's influence in global politics is severely diminished. And the world may have a deal that gives more to Iran than was previously provided under the JCPOA.

That’s not the art of the deal.

(The author is a former Comelec commissioner. He was the chairman of the Comelec Steering Committee that oversaw the successful modernization of the first national automated Philippines elections in 2010. He remains involved in public service as an election lawyer and is a Senior Partner at Divina Law Office.)