The government is expected to generate significantly higher revenues from imported non-agricultural fertilizer products this year as global fertilizer prices surge due to the ongoing Middle East crisis.

Citing Bureau of Customs (BOC) data, think tank Congressional Policy and Budget Research Department (CPBRD) said in a report that the government collected ₱106.72 million in tax revenues from non-agricultural fertilizer imports from January to April.

The four-month amount already accounted for roughly a third of last year’s total collections of ₱307.1 million, which was five percent lower than the ₱323.9 million recorded in 2024.

“Driven by the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, higher landed costs for natural gas and sulfur are expected to raise revenues from non-agricultural fertilizer imports,” CPBRD said.

The House of Representatives’ think tank noted that while global fertilizer prices eased in 2023 and 2024, the downward trend has reversed following the outbreak of the Middle East conflict in late February.

In particular, restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz—a critical maritime chokepoint that handles around 20 percent of global oil supply—have triggered supply disruptions that are making key fertilizer inputs more expensive.

“Notably, the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict raised costs for critical inputs, particularly natural gas for nitrogen-based fertilizers and sulfur for triple superphosphates,” CPBRD said.

According to the think tank, these cost pressures are being aggravated further by China’s restrictive export caps on phosphates and capacity adjustments by major potash producers such as Canada.

The report showed that more than half of the revenues collected in the first four months came from imports of nitrogenous fertilizers at ₱56.14 million.

This was followed by imported mixed fertilizers at ₱28.3 million and imported potassic fertilizers at ₱21.2 million.

Of the total collections during the January-to-April period, ₱45.09 million came from the 12-percent value-added tax (VAT) imposed on non-agricultural fertilizer imports.

Meanwhile, ₱61.64 million came from tariffs ranging from one percent to seven percent.

CPBRD noted that these fertilizer imports are used in industries such as automotive emission control, electronics, and fire safety, making them subject to tariffs and VAT.

This contrasts with fertilizer imports intended exclusively for agricultural use, which are exempt from such taxes.

The think tank also reported that the Philippines’ fertilizer import volume declined by more than seven percent to 2.27 million metric tons (MT) in 2025 from 2.46 million MT in the previous year.

Despite the decline, CPBRD noted that China further strengthened its position as the Philippines’ top fertilizer supplier, with exports to the country increasing by 17.6 percent to 1.27 million MT from 1.08 million MT.

“This heavy reliance poses a serious supply chain risk, with Chinese imports alone accounting for 53.6 percent of the country’s total supply in 2025,” CPBRD said, adding that alternative sources remain limited.