Three global weather forecasting systems are projecting the 2026 El Niño will equal or exceed the strongest El Niño on record, which occurred in 1877-1878.

Why is this worrisome? The 1877-78 El Niño hit the tropics that caused the collapse of grain harvests in India, China, Brazil and sub-Saharan Africa triggering the Global Famine of 1876-78. It killed between 12.2-29.3 million in India, 19.5-30 million in China, two million in Brazil, roughly three percent of the world population at that time.

The El Niño phenomenon typically brings more extreme weather than the usual seasonal changes and may cause severe storms, flooding or severe drought in areas affected. We have seen some of these effects in the recent super El Niño events in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16, but forecasters are projecting the current one to be more severe. Therefore, we have to be better prepared for mass evacuations and feeding programs.

Weather phenomena like these can seriously threaten food, water and economic security around the world. What are we doing to mitigate such effects?

Our agricultural sector is teetering on the brink of collapse due to lack of government assistance and subsidy, while we keep importing rice and many other foodstuffs from other countries. If these countries we are importing from will produce less due to drought brought about by El Niño, they will not be exporting food products because they will need to feed their own people. What are we to do when that happens?

Obviously, there needs to be a contingency plan, if a more permanent one to boost our agricultural productivity has not been formulated. Senator Kiko Pangilinan is on the right track on this matter, but the Agriculture department has to step up its game as well. It definitely needs a multisectoral approach with private sector participation since our bureaucracy suffers from massive inertia, incompetence and corruption. Nothing is more frightening than a severe famine, which will trigger riots and widespread collapse of societal norms.

That’s the food part. The DENR has also warned about the country facing “water bankruptcy” situation, where our consumption will exceed the country’s natural capacity to replenish our water sources. The continually increasing demand from households, agriculture, industry and expanding urban population will increase pressure on our natural water resources-rivers, lakes, groundwater, reservoir and watersheds across the country. At the moment, our dams are now operating below their normal water levels, which does happen routinely but the current rate of depletion is accelerating without foreseeable storms that can replenish water levels.

This is compounded by continuing deforestation, pollution, watershed degradation, inefficient water infrastructure and climate change. An extreme El Niño phenomenon will cause even worse drought.

At least, our government has acknowledged the problem of water security and will accelerate science-based solutions including desalination systems, groundwater development, water refilling infrastructure and improving distribution systems. Let’s hope and pray this isn’t just lip service on their part.

One promising solution is the concept of harvesting water from the air. Some inventors have come up with viable systems for this purpose, and it can even provide pure water in desert areas. The Philippines is very humid, sitting in a tropical climate, with an average relative humidity of 80-82 percent, so atmospheric water generators will play a crucial role when we have depleted our water resources. Of course, these devices will need power sources, and solar-powered devices or passive systems will be more efficient and economical.

Ultimately, water security will hinge on our ability to stop deforestation, reduce pollution, re-green denuded mountains, and more effective environmental stewardship in general. Our watersheds will need rehabilitation and continued preservation, which will also reduce flooding due to rainwater run-off. Our water distribution systems must be made more efficient with less wastage. The same goes for our irrigation systems.

We will need to enact long term measures for water stewardship, without which we will face the prospects of water shortages. Unlike food, which we can live without for weeks or more, we cannot live without water. Water shortages will severely affect food production, worsening the effects of drought. Eventually, our food chain will collapse in that scenario.

The flip side of an El Niño phenomenon is the occurrence of more severe storms. Widespread destruction of agricultural crops, infrastructure and all property in general will be more severe. Needless to say, massive flooding will ensue, no thanks to our corrupt politicos who siphoned off the flood control program funds leaving us with ghost projects. In many instances, half-baked solutions led to more severe flooding.

All in all. We face the prospects of a perfect storm when the super El Niño hits a few months from now. We need to rapidly gear up for it. Enough of the politicking. We will sink or swim together!