Oil prices are projected to rise at a much slower pace next week than previously feared, tracking a late-week cooling in Asian refined product markets and the slight easing of geopolitical anxieties in the Middle East.

Diesel retail prices are expected to increase by ₱0.40 to ₱0.60 per liter, according to calculations based on the full-week average of the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) and foreign exchange rates. Gasoline prices are on track for a steeper upward adjustment of between ₱0.80 and ₱1 per liter. The figures account for recent shifts in international cargo premiums.

The tempered increases mean common pump prices in Metro Manila could reach up to ₱95 per liter for premium gasoline (RON95) and approximately ₱83.90 per liter for diesel. Actual retail adjustments will vary across individual service stations. Local oil firms are scheduled to finalize the price changes in coordination with the Department of Energy on Monday, May 25.

Refined petroleum products tracked a broader decline in crude benchmarks toward the end of the week as regional risk premiums softened. Despite an expected drawdown in regional fuel inventories ahead of the peak driving season, international gasoline prices retraced from their recent highs, driven down by the broader retreat in crude.

While the short-term price outlook has stabilized, long-term risks to energy costs remain skewed to the upside. Market volatility continues to be underpinned by ongoing geopolitical tensions, specifically Iran’s efforts to institutionalize tighter control over the Strait of Hormuz.

The critical maritime chokepoint handles roughly 20 percent of the world’s seaborne oil trade. Transit volumes through the strait remain severely depressed, leaving local consumer prices exposed to any sudden disruptions in the global energy supply chain.